The Future of Ex-Ante LCA? Lessons Learned and Practical Recommendations

Abstract

Every decision-oriented life cycle assessment (LCAs) entails, at least to some extent, a future-oriented feature. However, apart from the ex-ante LCAs, the majority of LCA studies are retrospective in nature and do not explicitly account for possible future effects. In this review a generic theoretical framework is proposed as a guideline for ex-ante LCA. This framework includes the entire technology life cycle, from the early design phase up to continuous improvements of mature technologies, including their market penetration. The compatibility with commonly applied system models yields an additional aspect of the framework. Practical methods and procedures are categorised, based on how they incorporate future-oriented features in LCA. The results indicate that most of the ex-ante LCAs focus on emerging technologies that have already gone through some research cycles within narrowly defined system boundaries. There is a lack of attention given to technologies that are at a very early development stage, when all options are still open and can be explored at a low cost. It is also acknowledged that technological learning impacts the financial and environmental performance of mature production systems. Once technologies are entering the market, shifts in market composition can lead to substantial changes in environmental performance.

How to Conduct Prospective Life Cycle Assessment for Emerging Technologies? A Systematic Review and Methodological Guidance

“…Nevertheless, only two of the authors apply a consequential modeling approach to take future market developments into account [78,101]. However, Bergerson et al [102] and Buyle et al [20] state that it is crucial to describe the market and technological characteristics as they influence the outcome of a prospective LCA of emerging technologies.…”

“…Prospective LCAs are also called anticipatory [18] or ex-ante LCAs [19]. For a more in-depth discussion on the definitions of different modes of LCA including future states of product systems, see Cucurachi et al [19] and Buyle et al [20]. The LCAs scrutinized by Arvidsson et al [17] deal with nanomaterials, biomaterials, and energy technologies.…”

“…Buyle et al [20] build upon the work of Arvidson et al [17] and Cucurrachi et al [19]. As a result, Buyle et al [20]. contribute a framework for conducting ex-ante LCA.…”

A review of thermochemical upgrading of pyrolysis bio‐oil: Techno‐economic analysis, life cycle assessment, and technology readiness

“…How data are gathered, by experimental or in silico methods, as well as how technological scaling is measured, strongly affects the outcome of assessments, and subsequently the comparative base for decision‐making. Buyle et al () thus call for formalized methods that render technological projections reproducible and comparable in ex‐ante sustainability assessment.…”

“…How data are gathered, by experimental or in silico methods, as well as how technological scaling is measured, strongly affects the outcome of assessments, and subsequently the comparative base for decision-making. Buyle et al (2019) thus call for formalized methods that render technological projections reproducible and comparable in ex-ante sustainability assessment. Once common ex-ante sustainability projection methods are established, comparable results of TEA and LCA at the same TRL could be integrated to support decision-making.…”