The future of electric two-wheelers and electric vehicles in China

Abstract

a b s t r a c tThe method of force field analysis is used to examine the future technological and market evolution of electric two-wheelers (E2W) in China. The authors identify key forces driving and resisting future E2W market growth, root causes behind these forces, and important insights about the likelihood of a wide shift to larger three-and four-wheel electric vehicles (EV). The authors conclude that the key forces driving E2W market growth are: improvements in E2W and battery technology due to product modularity and modular industry structure, strong local regulatory support in the form of gasolinepowered motorcycle bans and loose enforcement of E2W standards, and deteriorating bus public transit service. The largest forces resisting E2W market growth are strong demand for gasoline-powered motorcycles, bans on E2Ws due to safety concerns in urban areas, and growing support for public transit. The balance of these forces appears to favor E2W market growth. This growth will likely drive vehicle electrification through continued innovation in batteries and motors, the switch from lead-acid to Li-ion batteries in E2Ws, and the development of larger E2Ws and EVs. There are however strong forces resisting vehicle electrification, including battery cost, charging infrastructure, and inherent complications with large battery systems.

The Current Dilemma and Future Path of China’s Electric Vehicles

“…Then, the electric bike market in China underwent a great deal of success until the late 1990s, facilitated by favorable local regulatory practices in the form of motorcycle bans and loose enforcement of electric bike standards. These local motorcycle bans became the ultimate driver for the electric bike boom in China [66,67]. By contrast, the experience of Taiwan was just the opposite.…”

Disruptive Innovation on Two Wheels: Chinese Urban Transportation and Electrification of the Humble Bike

“…It also helped them avoid the temptation of cheap gasoline in the market, a trend in the past year and initiate a transition toward greener modes of commuting (LaBelle, 2015). With over 1,200 E-bike manufacturers, 500 component producers, and 10,000 distributors that add up to a work force of over 5 million (Weinert et al, 2008), E-bikes in China are clearly a Disruptive Innovation which can no longer be easily ignored.…”

“…As Weinert et al (2008) argue there could be two possible scenarios in the socio-technological trajectory of E-Bikes in China.…”

Iron-Doped ZnO for Lithium-Ion Anodes: Impact of the Dopant Ratio and Carbon Coating Content

“…Despite the tremendous commercial success of lithium-ion batteries for a wide variety of applications -ranging from small-scale portable electronics to electric bikes and scooters and, recently, electric vehicles -further enhanced energy and power densities are needed for the realization of a fully electrified public and private transport. [1][2][3][4] While optimized cell designs and battery engineering have a great impact on such improvement, the next great leap forward will require the implementation of new battery chemistries. With regard to the anode side, most research activities within the past years have focused on replacing graphite by alloying or conversion materials, which commonly allow for substantially higher specific capacities.…”