The future of ASEAN energy mix: A SWOT analysis

Abstract

This paper assesses competing outlooks for energy mix in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), highlighting the paradox of its fossil fuel-dominated outlooks when contrasted with its aspirations to move toward a green energy mix, and reviews green energy strategies using the SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis method. The paper argues that despite the looming brown outlooks due to the expected surge of coal, the ASEAN region has many advantages in providing cleaner energy for its green vision. However, reduction of CO2 emissions has not been explicitly set in the region's policy agenda and thus green energy potential is underdeveloped. To achieve a greener energy mix, ASEAN needs to make further efforts such as cleaner use and removal of subsidies of fossil fuels, promotion of renewables and energy efficiency, regional market integration and connectivity, and execution of existing plans by nations. Ultimately, each of these strategies will require sustained leadership, political determination, and concrete actions from stakeholders, in particular, national governments across the region.Key Words: Southeast Asia; ASEAN; Energy Mix; Energy Outlook; SWOT Analysis 1.IntroductionThe current outlooks for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) energy mix are brown: coal will have a growing share and CO2 emissions are expected to almost double between 2011 and 2035. With a rising population of 571 million in 2010 and economic growth resulting in an increasing share of global Gross Domestic Production (GDP), Southeast Asia is seeing rapid growth in its energy demand and is consequently shifting the center of gravity of world energy demand towards Asia, along with its neighbors China and India [1]. Such dramatic and rapid shifts create challenges in terms of providing for energy supply, energy security, and environmental management [2]. Consequently, conflicts between increasing energy use to sustain economic growth and mitigating adverse impacts on the environment-are emerging concerns in Southeast Asia that will linger on in the near future.Paradoxically, ASEAN has stated its aspiration to be "Green". Notably, however, actions that directly reduce Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions have not been incorporated in the current 1 Energy Studies Institute, National University of Singapore, Singapore.Email: xunpeng.shi@gmail.com 1 energy sectorial action plan. In place of direct abatement policies, ASEAN has undertaken various actions to approach a green energy mix indirectly, with some of these programs going well but require continued progress, and others insufficient to meet their stated goals. This paper applies the "SWOT" analysis, which is popular in strategy studies, to examine the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, of the ASEAN energy sector with regards to achieving green energy in the future. To the best of the Author's knowledge, such a strategic analysis of the ASEAN energy mix in the context of de-carbonization has not been presented in the...

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