The future is now! Extrapolated riskscapes, anticipatory action and the management of potential emergencies

Neisser, Florian; Runkel, Simon

doi:10.1016/j.geoforum.2017.04.008

Cited by 23 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…Troisièmement, la gestion des catastrophes s'inscrit dans un continuum préparation / planification / gestion des urgences / sortie de crise (Lakoff, 2007) sans oublier la reconstruction, qui elle-même doit être anticipée (Moatty et Vinet, 2016 (Neisser et Runkel, 2017). Ces stratégies n'ont pas que des conséquences techniques, mais également profondément politiques : anticiper -et par là, problématiser le futur -signifie se poser des questions éthiques sur quelles actions prioriser, quelle population sauver en priorité, quelles infrastructures sécuriser (Anderson, 2010).…”

Section: Echogéo 51 | 2020unclassified

Le couple anticipation/décision aux prises avec l’exceptionnel, l’imprévu et l’incertitude

November¹,

Azémar²,

Lecacheux³

et al. 2020

echogeo

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Section: Echogéo 51 | 2020unclassified

Le couple anticipation/décision aux prises avec l’exceptionnel, l’imprévu et l’incertitude

November¹,

Azémar²,

Lecacheux³

et al. 2020

echogeo

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“…For example, Simandan (2018a) searches for geographical scholarship on surprise, returning a small handful of papers, but one that stretches back four decades (Deutsche, 1995;Lee, 1976;Mackenzie, 2007;Mills, 2013). Moreover, the tendency for the subject to be discussed under other rubrics is evidenced in that a similar search using terms such as 'encounter' (Adams, 2017;Kallio, 2017), 'event' (Dilkes-Frayne and Duff, 2017; Shaw, 2012), 'unpredictability and uncertainty' (Simandan, 2010b;Simandan, 2019), 'estrangement' and 'extraordinary' (Ash and Simpson, 2016;Larsen and Johnson, 2012), 'risk' (Neisser and Runkel, 2017), 'hazard' (Nobert and Pelling, 2017) and 'disaster' (Hu, 2018), returns a more extensive set of literature (Simandan, 2018a). Simandan (2018a) highlights the role of ontological uncertainty in producing geographic space over time, as evident in the waves of economic transformation to inner-city Vancouver traced by Barnes and Hutton (2009).…”

Section: Ontological Uncertainty and The Production Of Geographic Spacementioning

confidence: 99%

Answers to questions on uncertainty in geography: Old lessons and new scenario tools

Derbyshire

2019

Environ Plan A

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In many domains, including geography, there can be the implicit assumption that improved data analysis and statistical modelling must lead to improved policymaking, and its perceived failure to do so can be disconcerting. Yet, this assumption overlooks the fundamental distinction between epistemological and ontological uncertainty, as discussed herein. Epistemological uncertainty describes the known and bounded inaccuracy of our knowledge about the world as now. Whereas ontological uncertainty describes the rendering completely obsolete of this present knowledge by surprises in the form of currently unknown future events, and by cascading changes to beliefs, attitudes and behaviours made by diverse actors in response to – and in anticipation of others’ responses to – new developments. This paper does the following: (a) shows that because of ontological uncertainty, improved data analysis and statistical modelling can never lead straightforwardly to improved policymaking, no matter how well implemented; (b) outlines how probability-based tools offer little assistance with ontological uncertainty because they are based on present perceptions of future possibilities; (c) urges geographers to reconcile with ontological uncertainty as a source of potentially transformational change, rather than viewing it as a problem to be overcome or something to be defended against; and (d) reviews a range of new, non-probabilistic scenario tools that, when used in combination, can assist in harnessing ontological uncertainty for transformational purposes by surfacing what is to be gained and by whom from enabling, blocking or altering intended policy outcomes, and by searching for future possibilities unconstrained by the present.

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“…An important aspect to prevent occurrence of emergencies is timely forecasting of opportunities for occurrence and assessment of economic consequences and losses from emergencies of natural character [8].…”

Section: розроблено комбIнований метод прогнозування процесу виникненmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development оf combined method for predicting the process of the occurrence of emergencies of natural character

Ivanets

Horielyshev

Ivanets

et al. 2018

EEJET

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The future is now! Extrapolated riskscapes, anticipatory action and the management of potential emergencies

Cited by 23 publications

References 38 publications

Le couple anticipation/décision aux prises avec l’exceptionnel, l’imprévu et l’incertitude

Le couple anticipation/décision aux prises avec l’exceptionnel, l’imprévu et l’incertitude

Answers to questions on uncertainty in geography: Old lessons and new scenario tools

Development оf combined method for predicting the process of the occurrence of emergencies of natural character

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