The Full Value of Vaccine Assessments (FVVA): A Framework to Assess and Communicate the Value of Vaccines for Investment and Introduction Decision Making

Hutubessy, Raymond; Lauer, Jeremy A.; Giersing, Birgitte; Sim, So Yoon; Jit, Mark; Kaslow, David C.; Botwright, Siobhan

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3841999

Cited by 23 publications

(13 citation statements)

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“…There are remaining gaps that modelling can help to address to provide evidence for investing in tuberculosis vaccine development and delivery to inform the Full Vaccine of Vaccine Assessment. 30 Estimates of the cost-effectiveness, budget impact, and wider benefits of specific tuberculosis vaccine candidates would support research investment decision making. Future modelling research can help to better understand potential vaccine effectiveness considering a variety of factors, such as age, gender, duration of vaccine protection, and specific risk groups.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of alternative delivery strategies for novel tuberculosis vaccines in low- and middle-income countries: a modelling study

Clark

Mukandavire

Portnoy

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Background Tuberculosis is a leading infectious cause of death worldwide. Novel vaccines will be required to reach global targets and reverse setbacks from the COVID-19 pandemic. We estimated the impact of novel tuberculosis vaccines in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), under alternative delivery scenarios. Methods We calibrated a tuberculosis model to 105 LMICs (93% of global incidence). Vaccine scenarios were implemented as Basecase: routine vaccination of 9-year-olds and a one-time vaccination campaign for ages ≥10 with country-specific introduction between 2028[ndash]2047 and 5-year scale-up to target coverage; Accelerated Scale-up: as Basecase, but all countries introducing in 2025 with instant scale-up; and Routine Only: as Basecase, but routine vaccination only. Vaccines protected against disease for 10-years, with 50% efficacy. Findings The Basecase scenario reduced tuberculosis incidence (19.5% [95% uncertainty range=18.3–21.6%]) and mortality (20.6% [19.2–23.4%]) rates in 2050 and prevented 3.6 (3.3–3.9) million deaths before 2050, including 1.6 million in the WHO South-East Asian region. The Accelerated Scale-up scenario reduced tuberculosis incidence (25.2% [23.9–27.5%]), mortality (26.7% [25.2–29.9%]), and prevented 7.9 (7.3–8.5) million deaths. The Routine Only scenario reduced tuberculosis incidence (9.9% [9.0–11.6%]), mortality (9.9% [8.9–12.3%]), and prevented 1.1 (0.9–1.2) million deaths. Interpretations Novel tuberculosis vaccines could have substantial impact, which will vary depending on delivery strategy. Including a campaign will be crucial for rapid impact. Accelerated introduction similar to the pace of COVID-19 vaccines could approximately double the lives saved before 2050. Investment is required to support vaccine development, manufacturing, prompt introduction and scale-up. Funding WHO (2020/985800-0)

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of alternative delivery strategies for novel tuberculosis vaccines in low- and middle-income countries: a modelling study

Clark

Mukandavire

Portnoy

et al. 2022

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…While the vaccine-avertable disease burden is an important public health priority, the high morbidity and mortality impact on the young adult population also translates into considerable productivity losses from an economic perspective 7,10 . This requires a broader global public health value proposition analysis to infer the end-to-end perspectives of vaccine development to uptake continuum [11][12][13][14] , and the global benefits of prospective Strep A vaccines are estimated to be highly positive 15 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The potential health impact of prospective Strep A vaccines: a modeling study

Giannini

Cannon

Cadarette

et al. 2022

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The World Health Organization published the preferred product characteristics for a Group A Streptococcus (Strep A) vaccine in 2018. Based on these parameters for the age of vaccination, vaccine efficacy, duration of protection from vaccine-derived immunity, and vaccination coverage, we developed a static cohort model to estimate the projected health impact of Strep A vaccination at the global, regional, and national levels and by country-income category. We used the model to analyse six strategic scenarios. Based on Strep A vaccine introduction between 2022 and 2034 for the primary scenario, we estimated vaccination at birth for 30 vaccinated cohorts could avert 2.5 billion episodes of pharyngitis, 345 million episodes of impetigo, 1.3 million episodes of invasive disease, 24 million episodes of cellulitis, and 6 million cases of rheumatic heart disease globally. Vaccination impact in terms of burden averted per fully vaccinated individual is highest in North America for cellulitis and in Sub-Saharan Africa for rheumatic heart disease.

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“…5,6 Using this framework, we estimated the costs, cost-effectiveness, and net monetary benefit of TB vaccine introduction, from health system and societal perspectives, to inform global-level decision-making for novel TB vaccine investment and introduction. 5,6…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The cost and cost-effectiveness of novel tuberculosis vaccines in low- and middle-income countries: a modelling study

Portnoy¹,

Clark

Quaife

et al. 2022

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Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is preventable and curable but eliminating it has proven challenging. Safe and effective TB vaccines that can rapidly reduce disease burden are essential for achieving TB elimination. We assessed future costs, cost-savings, and cost-effectiveness of introducing novel TB vaccines in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) for a range of product characteristics and delivery strategies. Methods: We developed a system of epidemiological and economic models, calibrated to demographic, epidemiological, and health service data in 105 LMICs. For each country, we assessed the likely future course of TB-related outcomes under several vaccine introduction scenarios, compared to a 'no-new-vaccine' counterfactual. We estimated the incremental impact of vaccine introduction for a range of health and economic outcomes. In the base-case, we assumed a vaccine price of $4.60, and used a 1x per-capita GDP cost-effectiveness threshold (both varied in sensitivity analyses). Findings: Vaccine introduction was estimated to require substantial near-term resources, offset by future cost-savings from averted TB burden. From a health system perspective, vaccination was cost-effective in 65 of 105 LMICs. From a societal perspective (including productivity gains and averted patient costs), vaccination was projected to be cost-effective in 75 of 105 LMICs and cost-saving in 57 of 105 LMICs, including 96% of countries with higher TB burden. When considering the monetized value of health gains, we estimated that introduction of an adolescent/adult vaccine could produce $258-447 billion in economic benefits by 2050. Interpretation: TB vaccination would be highly impactful and cost-effective in most LMICs.

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The Full Value of Vaccine Assessments (FVVA): A Framework to Assess and Communicate the Value of Vaccines for Investment and Introduction Decision Making

Cited by 23 publications

References 0 publications

The impact of alternative delivery strategies for novel tuberculosis vaccines in low- and middle-income countries: a modelling study

The impact of alternative delivery strategies for novel tuberculosis vaccines in low- and middle-income countries: a modelling study

The potential health impact of prospective Strep A vaccines: a modeling study

The cost and cost-effectiveness of novel tuberculosis vaccines in low- and middle-income countries: a modelling study

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