The Fragile World Hypothesis: Complexity, Fragility, and Systemic Existential Risk

Manheim, David

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2020.102570

Cited by 23 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Bostrom (2019) also describes a final vulnerability that does not necessarily have to occur in semi‐anarchic conditions, Type 0, in which ‘there is some technology that carries a hidden risk such that the default outcome when it is discovered is inadvertent civilizational devastation’ (p. 461). Finally, Manheim (2020) added another potentially inevitable risk under semi‐anarchic conditions: Type 3 risk, those related to systemic fragility.…”

Section: Considering Risk Processes and How Risks Interact With Human...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Taking stock of systems for organizing existential and global catastrophic risks: Implications for policy

Taggart

2023

Global Policy

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This article takes stock of the literature that is advancing knowledge about how to classify, organize and think about existential risks and globally catastrophic risks altogether. It then points out policy implications from this literature and applies those implications to a short case study on the National Risk Register, a comprehensive risk policy in the United Kingdom. In doing so, it names three broad systems that have emerged in the literature, which are those that organize risks by (1) consequences of risks, (2) sources or causes of risks and (3) risk processes and interactions with human systems. Organizing risks by consequences aids in risk prioritization, while classifying risks by source or cause aids in risk prevention and mitigation. Analysing risk processes and interactions with human systems opens the policy frame to broader policies of risk response and resilience.

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Section: Considering Risk Processes and How Risks Interact With Human...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Taking stock of systems for organizing existential and global catastrophic risks: Implications for policy

Taggart

2023

Global Policy

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“…As we have discussed in this section, other vulnerabilities that affect large fractions of digital systems and services are poised to emerge over time as the standardization and interconnectedness of digital systems and services continue to increase. As such, the risk of digital fragility may ultimately turn out to be a seriously dangerous Achilles' heel for our societies (Graham, 2011;Manheim, 2020).…”

Section: Uncovering the Risk Of Digital Fragilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

What Happens When the Machines Stop? Uncovering the Risk of Digital Fragility as the Achilles’ Heel of the Digital Transformation of Societies

Herwix¹,

Tieman²,

Rivers³

et al. 2023

Preprint

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The digital transformation of societies has been a core concern for the information systems (IS) research community since its emergence. While most of this work has had a positive outlook, recently a stronger focus on the unintended consequences and dark side of digitalization has come to the fore. This paper contributes to this emerging stream of research by zooming in on a heretofore unrecognized question with potentially catastrophic consequences: What happens to our increasingly digitalized societies when a pro-longed blackout causes a large fraction of digital systems and services to stop working for an extended period of time? To answer this motivating question, we conducted two system dynamics-based simulation experiments to tease out how different degrees of digitalization in a society would affect the resilience of the food system in the face of two different, extreme but plausible prolonged blackout scenarios. We find that a high degree of digitalization has a strong significant negative impact on food system resilience in the investigated scenarios. In the discussion of our findings, we conceptualize “the risk of digital fragility” as the underlying driver of the observed results. Moving forward, we suggest seven mitigation strategies for the risk of digital fragility as fruitful avenues for future research.

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“…Priority is given to making infrastructure stronger and putting planning systems and training in place (Becker et al 2018 ), with less focus on transforming systems, which would mean a trade-off that reaches beyond the primary focus of efficiency. In the race towards efficient systems and economies of scale, risks and fragility are increased (Manheim 2020 ). An efficiency-based supply chain model was considered appropriate in the last couple of decades which were more stable politically and environmentally.…”

Section: The Need For a New Visionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…COVID is the canary in the coalmine. It has exposed the fragility of our supply chains (Manheim 2020 ), illustrated the perils of under-regulation (ITF 2018 ; Haralambides 2019 ) and revealed the negative effects of industry consolidation (Benacchio et al 2007 ; Wilmsmeier and Sánchez 2011 ). Action on carbon emissions remains feeble, with neither the global regulator the International Maritime Organisation (IMO), nor industry bodies, such as the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS), yet accepting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) target of full decarbonisation by 2050.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Maritime governance after COVID-19: how responses to market developments and environmental challenges lead towards degrowth

Monios

Wilmsmeier

2022

Marit Econ Logist

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This paper considers two current challenges in the governance of maritime transport, specifically container shipping. The first is the oligopolistic market structure of container shipping, the downsides of which became evident during the COVID-19 pandemic. The second challenge is climate change, both the need to reduce emissions to zero by 2050 and to adapt to effects that are already locked in. The paper reviews the academic and policy literature and unveils a link between these market and environmental challenges which result from a focus on efficiency without considering negative effects such as diseconomies of scale and induced traffic, leading to a continued rise in total industry carbon emissions. The review likewise identifies links in how policy-makers react to the two challenges. Regulators could remove anti-trust exemptions from carriers, and policy-makers are being pushed to provide strict decarbonisation targets with a coherent timeline for ending the use of fossil fuels. Recent thinking on ecological economics, degrowth and steady-state economics is introduced as the paradigm shift that could link these two policy evolutions.

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The Fragile World Hypothesis: Complexity, Fragility, and Systemic Existential Risk

Cited by 23 publications

References 22 publications

Taking stock of systems for organizing existential and global catastrophic risks: Implications for policy

Taking stock of systems for organizing existential and global catastrophic risks: Implications for policy

What Happens When the Machines Stop? Uncovering the Risk of Digital Fragility as the Achilles’ Heel of the Digital Transformation of Societies

Maritime governance after COVID-19: how responses to market developments and environmental challenges lead towards degrowth

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