The fractions skill score for ensemble forecast verification
Tobias Necker,
Ludwig Wolfgruber,
Lukas Kugler
et al.
Abstract:The fractions skill score (FSS) is a neighbourhood verification method originally designed to verify deterministic forecasts of binary events. Previous studies employed different approaches for computing an ensemble‐based FSS for probabilistic forecast verification. We show that the formulation of an ensemble‐based FSS substantially affects verification results. Comparing four possible approaches, we determine how different ensemble‐based FSS variants depend on ensemble size, neighbourhood size, and forecast e… Show more
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