This study uses Landsat 5, 7, and
8 level 2 collection 2 surface
temperature to examine habitat suitability conditions spanning 1985–2019,
relative to the thermal tolerance of the endemic and endangered delta
smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) and
two non-native fish, the largemouth bass (Micropterus
salmoides) and Mississippi silverside (Menidia beryllina) in the upper San Francisco Estuary.
This product was validated using thermal radiometer data collected
from 2008 to 2019 from a validation site on a platform in the Salton
Sea (RMSE = 0.78 °C, r = 0.99, R
2 = 0.99, p < 0.01, and n = 237). Thermally unsuitable habitat, indicated by annual maximum
water surface temperatures exceeding critical thermal maximum temperatures
for each species, increased by 1.5 km2 yr–1 for the delta smelt with an inverse relationship to the delta smelt
abundance index from the California Department of Fish and Wildlife
(r = −0.44, R
2 = 0.2, p < 0.01). Quantile and Theil–Sen
regression showed that the delta smelt are unable to thrive when the
thermally unsuitable habitat exceeds 107 km2. A habitat
unsuitable for the delta smelt but survivable for the non-natives
is expanding by 0.82 km2 yr–1. Warming
waters in the San Francisco Estuary are reducing the available habitat
for the delta smelt.