The Fortunes of Poor Neighborhoods

Abstract

The authors examine the longitudinal fortunes of the poorest fifth of U.S. metropolitan neighborhoods, defined as those with 20% or higher poverty rates in 1980. They employ logistic regression to identify the factors correlated with 1980-1990 increases and decreases in poverty rates across these poor neighborhoods and examine whether factors vary by predominant racial/ethnic composition. Regional economic cycles and population growth performance are the dominant determinants of neighborhood poverty change, although the neighborhood's initial poverty rate also influences it. Neighborhoods with higher poverty rates in 1980 evince less stability. Extremely poor neighborhoods are roughly as likely to experience an increase in poverty of 5 or more percentage points as a comparable decrease in poverty. The authors conclude that continued poverty is not the only or even most likely fate of poor neighborhoods; their fortunes depend on both local and regional context.

Understanding Poverty Rate Dynamics in Moderately Poor Urban Neighborhoods: A Competitive Perspective

“…On the other hand, they are also supposed to help the incumbent neighborhood residents thrive by providing positive role models and increasing social interaction in the community (Rosenthal, 2007;Ellen & O'Regan, 2007). As the most prominent social capital generator as proved by numerous past studies (Brueckner, 1977;Carter et al, 1998;Galster et al, 2003;Ellen & O'Regan, 2007;Rosenthal, 2007), homeownership's role in resisting poverty growth is confirmed in this study. The variable Move5Years90 represents the proportion of the households who have resided in the neighborhood for more than 5 years.…”

“…Consistent with previous work (Fogarty, 1977;Galster & Mincy, 1993;Galster et al, 2003;Kingsley & Pettit, 2003;Jargowsky, 2003;Rosenthal, 2007;Ellen & O'Regan, 2007), census tracts are used as proxies for urban neighborhoods. "census tracts are usually delineated by bounding features such as roads or rivers, and are supposed to have relatively homogeneous attributes with regard to economic, social and housing stock characteristics" (Jargowsky, 2003).…”

“…Galster and colleagues (2003) used the 20% poverty rate as the cut off between moderate-poverty and high-poverty neighborhoods and the 40% poverty as the cut off between high-poverty and extremely high-poverty neighborhoods. Those cut off values are chosen because historical studies indicate exacerbated social problems once poverty rates exceed such threshold values (Galster et al, 2003).…”

“…According to this perspective, the age of a neighborhood's housing stock is the key to understanding its subsequent course of economic status change. Many urban researchers include in their models neighborhood age indicators to capture the effect of the filtering process (Brueckner, 1977;Galster et al, 2003;Rosenthal, 2007;Ellen & O'Regan, 2007). But the empirical evidence is far from consistent.…”

“…Many urban researchers focus on how to improve the conditions of high-poverty neighborhoods to get them out of the high-poverty status (see for example, Fogarty, 1977;Wilson, 1987;Kasarda, 1993;Galster et al, 2003;Ellen & O'Regan, 2007;Rosenthal, 2007). Relatively fewer studies have systematically modelled the process in which healthy neighborhoods decline into high-poverty areas.…”