The Fortunes of Migratory Birds from Eurasia: Being on a Tightrope in the Sahel

Abstract

Many studies have shown that rainfall in the Sahel has a great influence on population trends of European bird species that spend the northern winter there. African bird species living in the Sahel, notably those that forage on the ground, have also shown significant declines, but independent of rainfall. This paper summarises the results of field data gathered in the entire Sahel and evaluates the many factors that play a role in the fortunes of birds. (1) Rainfall determines the extent of open water in the Sahel, and by default the fortunes of waterbirds. In recent decades the surface area of open water has increased because water tables have risen. (2) Rainfall south of the Sahel determines river discharge and therefore the surface of floodplains in the Sahel. Rainfall has a cumulative effect: discharges disproportionally decrease after a number of years with little rain, and vice versa. During the dry season (October-May), floodplains gradually dry out. In wet years, water -and hence food -is available for birds up to their departure, but in dry years birds become concentrated at the few remaining pools and so present an easy target for bird-trappers. Further desiccation leads to starvation. (3) After a year with heavy rainfall, seed is available in abundance, but a dry year results in a shift in the plant community and a low seed supply. Mortality among seedeaters increases under dry conditions. (4) In dry years, trees lose their leaves early on, forcing arboreal birds into a diminishing number of trees that retain leaves. In extremely dry years trees die on a massive scale and it takes many years before tree coverage is restored. When droughts occur in quick succession, as in 1972/73 and again in 1984/85, tree recovery is slow and populations of arboreal birds will continue to decline, or recover slowly or only partly (as for Eurasian Wryneck Jynx torquilla and Common Redstart Phoenicurus phoenicurus, whose numbers remain reduced by tenfold when compared to the 1950s, despite a slight recovery). Rainfall in the Sahel gradually recovered after 1990, as did the woody vegetation albeit with a delay, and many migratory bird species responded accordingly. Subalpine Warblers Curruca subalpina and Western Orphean Warblers Curruca hortensis have increased as much as threefold to fivefold since 1990. Southern European bird species, wintering in the arid parts of southern Sahara and Sahel, were hit the hardest during the Great Drought in 1969-1992, but also recovered the fastest, particularly strongly once rainfall had significantly recovered.Despite clear links between migratory birds and rainfall-related variables in their wintering areas, a migrant's world is more complicated than exclusively being constrained by rainfall. In the past century, the human population in sub-Saharan Africa has increased tenfold, with far-reaching consequences. (1) Cattle numbers boomed and grazing pressure increased greatly. Heavy grazing means lower grass seed production, especially of seeds that birds prefer. The steep decline of gr...

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