The formal demography of kinship III: Kinship dynamics with time-varying demographic rates

Caswell, Hal; Song, Xi

doi:10.4054/demres.2021.45.16

Cited by 19 publications

(33 citation statements)

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“…Additional state variables can be added as in the age×parity model of Caswell (2020). And, time variation can be incorporated as in the models of Caswell and Song (2021) and Song and Caswell (2022).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The age structure z could be obtained from projection of a previous population (Caswell and Song 2021) or from an observed population structure. Here, following Goodman, Keyfitz, and Pullum 1974;Caswell 2019aCaswell , 2020, we use the stable population defined by the demographic rates in Ũ and F. Define a projection matrix for the female dominant population…”

Section: Ages At Maternity and Paternitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…That men and women live and reproduce differently is a demographic truism. However, the kinship models of Caswell (2019aCaswell ( , 2020 and Caswell and Song (2021), following those of Goodman, Keyfitz, and Pullum (1974), and including the model of Coste et al (2021), describe the kinship network of a female focal individual subject to female demographic rates. The result is a projection of female kin (e.g., daughters, granddaughters, .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The formal demography of kinship IV: Two-sex models and their approximations

Caswell¹

2022

DemRes

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BACKGROUNDPrevious kinship models analyze female kin through female lines of descent, neglecting male kin and male lines of descent. Because males and females differ in mortality and fertility, including both sexes in kinship models is an important unsolved problem. OBJECTIVEThe objectives are to develop a kinship model including female and male kin through all lines of descent, to explore approximations when full sex-specific rates are unavailable, and to apply the model to several populations as an example. METHODSThe kin of a focal individual form an age×sex-classified population and are projected as Focal ages using matrix methods, providing expected age-sex structures for every type of kin at every age of Focal. Initial conditions are based on the distribution of ages at maternity and paternity. RESULTSThe equations for two-sex kinship dynamics are presented. As an example, the model is applied to populations with large (Senegal), medium (Haiti), and small (France) differences between female and male fertility. Results include numbers and sex ratios of kin as Focal ages. An approximation treating female and male rates as identical provides some insight into kin numbers, even when male and female rates are very different. CONTRIBUTIONMany demographic and sociological parameters (e.g., aspects of health, bereavement, labor force participation) differ markedly between the sexes. This model permits analysis of such parameters in the context of kinship networks. The matrix formulation makes it possible to extend the two-sex analysis to include kin loss, multistate kin demography, and time varying rates.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Ages At Maternity and Paternitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The formal demography of kinship IV: Two-sex models and their approximations

Caswell¹

2022

DemRes

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“…We use our recent exten sion of the matrix ana lytic kin ship model intro duced by Caswell (2019Caswell ( , 2020 to include time-vary ing demo graphic rates (Caswell and Song 2021). The time-vary ing model allows fer til ity and mor tal ity rates to vary over time.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Kin pres ence in the United States has changed dra mat i cally in recent decades because of these demo graphic changes. Chung and Alexander (2019) and Caswell and Song (2021) showed that kin ship mod els based on time-invari ant and time-vary ing rates canleadtosig nifi cantlydif fer entesti ma tesofkin shipbecausetheassump tionofsta ble rates is often vio lated. Before Caswell's matrix approach, the foun da tion of kin ship anal y sis was the work of Goodman et al (1974), who derived the expected num ber of kin of var i ous kinds at each age of a focal indi vid ual (who we call Focal, fol low ing Caswell and Song 2021) by inte grat ing over all the path ways by which Focal could accu mulate liv ing kin at a given age.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Kinship in Racial Differences in Exposure to Unemployment

Song

Caswell

2022

Demography

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Most studies on unemployment have assessed its individual-level costs. However, beyond its effects on individuals, unemployment incurs costs for their immediate families and extended kin. Close kin provide the majority of social support for unemployed adults. Applying demographic and statistical techniques to official statistics and using COVID-19 survey data on kinship and labor force experience, we assess the unemployment level and exposure to unemployment in the United States from a kinship perspective. The results indicate dramatic racial disparities in the number of unemployed kin and the number of kin affected by an unemployed person. Specifically, during the pandemic-induced recession, Black Americans had 1.7 unemployed people in their extended family compared with 1.2 among Whites. Further, every job loss in a Black extended family affected approximately 23 related members of the family through kinship ties, compared with approximately 20 among Whites. The racial gap in the number of unemployed kin is evident in all age-groups and escalates with age. This study's findings highlight the need to understand unemployment and its demographic implications, which are stratified by race.

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Youth Experiencing Parental Death Due to Drug Poisoning and Firearm Violence in the US, 1999-2020

Schlüter,

Alburez-Gutierrez,

Bibbins-Domingo

et al. 2024

JAMA

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ImportanceYouth (those aged &lt;18 years) parental death has been associated with negative health outcomes. Understanding the burden of parental death due to drug poisoning (herein, drugs) and firearms is essential for informing interventions.ObjectiveTo estimate the incidence of youth parental death due to drugs, firearms, and all other causes.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis cross-sectional observational study was conducted using vital registration, including all US decedents, and census data from January 1990 through December 2020. Data were analyzed from May 30, 2023, to March 28, 2024.ExposuresParental death due to drug poisoning or firearms.Main Outcomes and MeasuresA demographic matrix projection model was used to estimate the number and incidence of youth experiencing parental death, defined as the death of 1 or more parents, per 1000 population aged less than 18 years. Analyses evaluated parental deaths by drugs, firearms, and all other causes from 1999 through 2020 by race and ethnicity.ResultsBetween 1999 and 2020, there were 931 785 drug poisoning deaths and 736 779 firearm-related deaths with a mean (SD) age of 42.6 (16.3) years. Most deaths occurred among males (73.8%) and White decedents (70.8%) followed by Black (17.5%) and Hispanic (9.5%) decedents. An estimated 759 000 (95% CI, 722 000-800 000) youth experienced parental death due to drugs and an estimated 434 000 (95% CI, 409 000-460 000) youth experienced parental death due to firearms, accounting for 17% of all parental deaths. From 1999 to 2020, the estimated number of youth who experienced parental death increased 345% (95% CI, 334%-361%) due to drugs and 39% (95% CI, 37%-41%) due to firearms compared with 24% (95% CI, 23%-25%) due to all other causes. Black youth experienced a disproportionate burden of parental deaths, based primarily on firearm deaths among fathers. In 2020, drugs and firearms accounted for 23% of all parental deaths, double the proportion in 1999 (12%).Conclusions and RelevanceResults of this modeling study suggest that US youth are at high and increasing risk of experiencing parental death by drugs or firearms. Efforts to stem this problem should prioritize averting drug overdoses and firearm violence, especially among structurally marginalized groups.

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The formal demography of kinship III: Kinship dynamics with time-varying demographic rates

Cited by 19 publications

References 20 publications

The formal demography of kinship IV: Two-sex models and their approximations

The formal demography of kinship IV: Two-sex models and their approximations

The Role of Kinship in Racial Differences in Exposure to Unemployment

Youth Experiencing Parental Death Due to Drug Poisoning and Firearm Violence in the US, 1999-2020

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