The form and evolution of international migration networks, 1990–2015

Abel, Guy J.; DeWaard, Jack; Ha, Jasmine Trang; Almquist, Zack W.

doi:10.1002/psp.2432

Cited by 7 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 72 publications

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“…Within this context, shared interests in food and drinks can be seen as a defining component of relationships between countries. This approach would build and enrich the growing literature on identifying the role and boundaries of migration networks [ 45 – 48 ] and the relationship between cultural production and migration [ 49 ]. Finally, as a matter of fact, it is important to emphasize that while the cuisine of a country is an important cultural marker to study cultural similarity, the proposed methodology could be extended other types of attributes and interests, which might be relevant for studies with other goals.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The interplay of migration and cultural similarity between countries: Evidence from Facebook data on food and drink interests

et al. 2022

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Migration has been proposed as one of the factors that shape cultural similarities across countries. However, studying the relationship between culture and migration has been challenging, in part because culture is difficult to quantify. The traditionally used survey questionnaires have a number of drawbacks, including that they are costly and difficult to scale to a large number of countries. To complement survey data, we propose the use of passively-collected digital traces from social media. We focus on food and drink as markers of a country’s culture. We then measure similarities between countries in terms of food and drink interests using aggregated data from the Facebook Advertising Platform. Methodologically, we offer approaches to measure the similarity between countries with both symmetric and asymmetric indices. Substantively, we assess the association between migration cultural similarity between countries by comparing our measure of cultural similarity with international migration data. In most countries, larger immigrant populations are associated with more similar food and drink preferences between their country of origin and the country of destination. Our results suggest that immigrants contribute to bringing the culture of their home countries to new countries. Moreover, our study identifies considerable variability in this pattern across countries.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The interplay of migration and cultural similarity between countries: Evidence from Facebook data on food and drink interests

et al. 2022

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“…Bayesian probabilistic forecasting methods for demographic processes have become increasingly widespread in the last 15 y ( 8 , 23 – 26 ), and here we extend this approach to forecasting bilateral international migration flows. Our approach builds on the multiplicative components model ( 13 ), arguments for separating the outflow rate and spatial interaction process ( 12 ), and the relative stability of the spatial distribution of global flows over the past three decades ( 11 , 27 ). The mean departure rate functional form is inspired by the net migration flow model of ref.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic forecasts of international bilateral migration flows

Welch

Raftery

2022

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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We propose a method for forecasting global human migration flows. A Bayesian hierarchical model is used to make probabilistic projections of the 39,800 bilateral migration flows among the 200 most populous countries. We generate out-of-sample forecasts for all bilateral flows for the 2015 to 2020 period, using models fitted to bilateral migration flows for five 5-y periods from 1990 to 1995 through 2010 to 2015. We find that the model produces well-calibrated out-of-sample forecasts of bilateral flows, as well as total country-level inflows, outflows, and net flows. The mean absolute error decreased by 61% using our method, compared to a leading model of international migration. Out-of-sample analysis indicated that simple methods for forecasting migration flows offered accurate projections of bilateral migration flows in the near term. Our method matched or improved on the out-of-sample performance using these simple deterministic alternatives, while also accurately assessing uncertainty. We integrate the migration flow forecasting model into a fully probabilistic population projection model to generate bilateral migration flow forecasts by age and sex for all flows from 2020 to 2025 through 2040 to 2045.

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“…Constructing international migration networks is an often-used approach [5,6]; the network structure is a good representation of migration flows, and the complex network theory offers a rich diversity of methodologies to examine the characteristics of population interactions. By analyzing the small-world and scale-free properties of the network, as well as the centrality of nodes and community division, researchers can evaluate the structural features of international migration [7][8][9][10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the Interactive Patterns of International Migration Network through a Reverse Gravity Approach

Yu,

Qin,

Jia

et al. 2024

Sustainability

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The international migration network, comprising the movements of people between countries, is one of the most important global systems of interaction, which can reflect the complex international relations of economics, cultures, and politics and has huge impacts on global sustainability. However, the conventional gravity model cannot model its complicated interactions accurately. In this article, we propose a novel reverse gravity model using genetic algorithm to reconstruct the complicated interaction patterns with high accuracy. To verify the feasibility of our method, it was applied to a series of international migration networks. We found that the derived node attractions were highly correlated with socioeconomic factors and network metrics, and the calculated node positions outperformed the geometric centers from the perspective of human migration that related to economy and demography. Our approach could be a preferred choice to investigate the spatial–temporal interactive patterns in geographical space, facilitating comprehension of the mechanisms underlying their generation and evolution.

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The form and evolution of international migration networks, 1990–2015

Cited by 7 publications

References 72 publications

The interplay of migration and cultural similarity between countries: Evidence from Facebook data on food and drink interests

The interplay of migration and cultural similarity between countries: Evidence from Facebook data on food and drink interests

Probabilistic forecasts of international bilateral migration flows

Modeling the Interactive Patterns of International Migration Network through a Reverse Gravity Approach

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