The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey

Lehmann, Robert

doi:10.1007/s41549-022-00079-5

Cited by 16 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…Промышленность в целом или обрабатывающие производства в частности называют отраслями, создающими (определяющими) цикл экономики разных стран (cycle-maker). Также их динамику используют для оценки деловых циклов экономики, поскольку их колебания взаимосвязаны, а ежемесячная статистика по ним публикуется раньше квартальных данных ВВП [Lehmann, 2022;Грачёв, 2014].…”

Section: эксперименты с трейсерами бизнес-циклов в российской практикеunclassified

Approaches to Building a Business Cycle Tracer Based on the Example of the Russian Manufacturing Industry

Shcherbakov,

Gartvich

2024

IET

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The importance of studying business cycles is determined by the scale of their impact on the economy and society, which leads to the need to develop methods to counteract their negative impact. Given the complexity of the topic and the many theories and debates in the field, there is a need for a simple tool to present business cycle information in an intuitive way for a wide audience. Such a tool is a business cycle tracer. This article is devoted to testing the possibility of using three approaches for its construction: the first (trend approach) is based on information whether the cycle is above or below the long-term trend, and whether it is increasing or decreasing; the second (growth rate approach) is whether the growth rates are above zero, and they are growing or decreasing compared to the neighboring time period; the third (fact-expectation approach) is whether estimates of the current situation and expectations are above or below zero (trend, long–term average, etc.). The work used data on the dynamics of output, the volume of future orders and the results of surveys of the manufacturing industry. The article shows that the first approach works best and allows you to clearly define the phases and turning points of the business cycle. The second approach makes it possible to identify phases of the business cycle, but has some disadvantages: jumps in the series from one quadrant to another and back near the boundary values occur, which complicates the analysis. The third approach is not acceptable for constructing a tracer, since it does not allow us to fully identify all phases of the business cycle and may have dynamics that do not correspond to the general logic of business cycles. The article also demonstrates the high relationship between the business cycles of the manufacturing industry and the business climate indicator of the Bank of Russia (data from business surveys of enterprises), indicating a change in the dynamics of the business cycle with 1-3 months ahead of statistics. Given the faster publication of survey results than statistical data, it can be used as a leading indicator.

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Section: эксперименты с трейсерами бизнес-циклов в российской практикеunclassified

Approaches to Building a Business Cycle Tracer Based on the Example of the Russian Manufacturing Industry

Shcherbakov,

Gartvich

2024

IET

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“…Every month the ifo publishes the ifo Business Climate Index, a much-followed leading indicator for the German economy, Lehmann (2023) for a recent survey on the forecasting power of the ifo business survey. The index is available for the aggregate economy, and separately for the manufacturing sector, services, retail, and the construction sector.…”

Section: Business Climate Manufacturingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Monetary Policy in the Presence of Supply Constraints: Evidence from German Firm-Level Data

Balleer

Noeller

2023

SSRN Journal

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“…In a detailed literature review,Lehmann (2023) shows the very good forecasting power of the numerous indicators from the ifo Business Survey for a wide range of macroeconomic variables.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Who Reports the Mood in German Boardrooms? Evidence from the Ifo Business Survey

Hennrich,

Sauer,

Wohlrabe

2023

SSRN Journal

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The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey

Cited by 16 publications

References 56 publications

Approaches to Building a Business Cycle Tracer Based on the Example of the Russian Manufacturing Industry

Approaches to Building a Business Cycle Tracer Based on the Example of the Russian Manufacturing Industry

Monetary Policy in the Presence of Supply Constraints: Evidence from German Firm-Level Data

Who Reports the Mood in German Boardrooms? Evidence from the Ifo Business Survey

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