The forecasting model research of rural energy transformation in Henan Province based on STIRPAT model

Abstract

In order to find the model of rural energy transformation in Henan Province. This paper examines the effects of population, per capita income, total value of agricultural output, per capita housing area, electric motor power, total power of rural durable goods on rural power consumption (PC) and effective irrigation area, per capita housing area, total power of agricultural machinery, total value of agricultural output, rural population, and energy intensity on rural total energy consumption (TEC) employing Tapio decoupling model. In addition, PSO-BOP is used to predict the values of each influencing factor in 2020-2025. Last, the STIRPAT model is used to forecast TEC and PC from 2020-2025 based on the data of rural energy consumption in Henan Province from 2009-2019. The results show that other factors besides population promote TEC and PC to different degrees. Moreover, the influencing factors, TEC and PC form a virtuous cycle of mutual promotion. Then, TEC and PC consumption show an increasing trend year by year in 2020-2025. It is worth noting that after 2022, the variation of PC is greater than that of TEC. To sum up, improving rural electrification level is a necessary way to realize its low-carbon energy transition.