The force model for asteroid (3200) Phaethon

We use the Slovak and Czech video meteor observations, as well as video meteoroid orbits collected in the CAMS, SonotaCo, EDMOND and DMS catalogues, for an analysis of the distribution of meteoroid orbits within the stream of the Geminids and of the dispersion of their radiants. We concentrate on the influence of the measurement errors on the precision of the orbits obtained from the video networks that are based on various meteordetection software packages and various meteor orbital element softwares.The Geminids radiant dispersion obtained from the large video catalogues reaches the dispersion of the radio observed Geminids, wherby the diffused marginal regions are affected mostly by meteoroids with extreme values (small or large) of the semi-major axes. Meteoroids of shorter semimajor axes concentrate at the eastern side of the radiant area and those of longer semi-major axes at the western part.The observed orbital dispersions in the Geminid stream described by the median absolute deviation range from 0.029 to 0.042 AU −1 for the video catalogues. The distribution of the semi-major axes of video meteors in all the databases, except for the Ondřejov (Czech) data, seem to be systematically biased in comparison with the photographic and radio meteors. The determined velocities of the video data are underestimated, probably as a consequence of the methods used for the positional and velocity measurements. The largest shift is observed in the EDMOND and SonotaCo catalogues.Except for the measurement errors which influence the analyses and their interpretations, we also point out the problem of the uncertainties of the numerical integration procedures that influence the simulations' results. Several experimental integrations of the Geminids parent asteroid, which we performed from the present to the past and then back to the year 2015, showed that a complete reproduction, including also the mean anomaly, is only possible for a time span of about 2700 years.

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“…P-R drag) and the orbit of the asteroid (e.g. rocket effect/yet force) (Galushina et al, 2015;Ryabova, 2016).…”

Section: Models Versus Observationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meteoroid orbits from video meteors. The case of the Geminid stream

Hajduková

Koten

Kornoš

et al. 2017

Planetary and Space Science

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“…Alternately, the recoil effects of outgassing and particle ejection near perihelion may also contribute to the effective transverse orbital acceleration. Galushina et al (2015), however, estimated that the Yarkovsky effect should be about an order of magnitude stronger. The current situation suggests that we are on the brink of determining the Yarkovsky effect for Phaethon, and it is very reasonable to expect that it will be fairly well constrained during its upcoming close encounter in December 2017 (especially if radar astrometry can be obtained).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Near-Earth asteroid (3200) Phaethon: Characterization of its orbit, spin state, and thermophysical parameters

Hanuš

Delbò

Vokrouhlický

et al. 2016

A&A

110

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Context. The near-Earth asteroid (3200) Phaethon is an intriguing object: its perihelion is at only 0.14 au and is associated with the Geminid meteor stream. Aims. We aim to use all available disk-integrated optical data to derive a reliable convex shape model of Phaethon. By interpreting the available space-and ground-based thermal infrared data and Spitzer spectra using a thermophysical model, we also aim to further constrain its size, thermal inertia, and visible geometric albedo. Methods. We applied the convex inversion method to the new optical data obtained by six instruments and to previous observations. The convex shape model was then used as input for the thermophysical modeling. We also studied the long-term stability of Phaethon's orbit and spin axis with a numerical orbital and rotation-state integrator.Results. We present a new convex shape model and rotational state of Phaethon: a sidereal rotation period of 3.603958(2) h and ecliptic coordinates of the preferred pole orientation of (319 • , −39 • ) with a 5 • uncertainty. Moreover, we derive its size (D = 5.1 ± 0.2 km), thermal inertia (Γ = 600 ± 200 J m −2 s −1/2 K −1 ), geometric visible albedo (p V = 0.122 ± 0.008), and estimate the macroscopic surface roughness. We also find that the Sun illumination at the perihelion passage during the past several thousand years is not connected to a specific area on the surface, which implies non-preferential heating.

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“…The Geminid meteor shower is an annual major shower with the maximum activity near December 14. In 2017 asteroid (3200) Phaethon (the parent body of the stream) has a close encounter with the Earth on December 16, and the minimum distance was calculated to be 0.0689 au (Galushina, Ryabova & Skripnichenko 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increasing Geminid meteor shower activity

Ryabova

Rendtel

2018

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society: Letters

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Mathematical modelling has shown that activity of the Geminid meteor shower should rise with time, and that was confirmed by analysis of visual observations 1985-2016. We do not expect any outburst activity of the Geminid shower in 2017, even though the asteroid (3200) Phaethon has a close approach to Earth in December of 2017. A small probability to observe dust ejected at perihelia 2009-2016 still exists.

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The force model for asteroid (3200) Phaethon

Cited by 17 publications

References 13 publications

Meteoroid orbits from video meteors. The case of the Geminid stream

Meteoroid orbits from video meteors. The case of the Geminid stream

Near-Earth asteroid (3200) Phaethon: Characterization of its orbit, spin state, and thermophysical parameters

Increasing Geminid meteor shower activity

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