The fluid voter: Exploring independent voting patterns over time

Abstract

Independents remain hard to categorize because they are, by their choice of self‐identification, resisting the standard categories of political classification. Despite the growth in independent voter identity, many political strategists still view independents as partisans. In this article, we contribute to the academic literature on independent voting behavior by exploring whether those who identify as politically independent function as true independents by accounting for their voting patterns over time. We do this by analyzing data produced by the American National Election Studies (ANES) on political identification and voting choices from 1972 to 2020 on each of the three ANES measures of party affiliation. Our findings show when tracking independent voting behavior over more than one election, there is a significant volatility in voting loyalty and independents as a group are distinct from partisans. This volatility was observed in all three measures of party affiliation used by the ANES survey data. The research also finds evidence that a sizeable number of independents move in and out of independent status from one election to another. Related Articles Grossmann, Matt. 2014. “The Varied Effects of Policy Cues on Partisan Opinions.” Politics & Policy 42(6): 881–904. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12102. Reilly, Thom, and E. C. Hedberg. 2022. “Social Networks of Independents and Partisans: Are Independents a Moderating Forcer?” Politics & Policy 50(2): 225–43. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12460. Saeki, Manabu. 2019. “Anatomy of Party Sorting: Partisan Polarization of Voters and Party Switching.” Politics & Policy 47(4): 699–747. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12318.

Note from the Editors

“…Our fourth article joins P&P's long and distinguished collection of studies on partisanship and voting behavior in the United States and beyond (see e.g., Grossmann, 2014; Reilly & Hedberg, 2022; Saeki, 2019). Reilly and Hunting (2023) contribute to literature on the independent voter, emphasizing that Independents' voting patterns are more volatile in terms of party loyalty, are decidedly unpredictable, and are more distinct from that of partisans than previously thought. Their findings confirm that, when tracked over multiple elections, independent voters in the United States move in and out of independent status.…”