The flexibility gamble: challenges for mainstreaming flexible approaches to climate change adaptation

Abstract

Adaptive and flexible approaches based on implementing different measures as new information emerges have been proposed as a way of enabling robustness towards uncertain future climate change. However, the success of flexible approaches in practice depends on the stability of the relevant organizational landscapes. In this paper, we draw upon key insights from the institutional theories of organizations and research on public administration and climate adaptation in Sweden. We argue that potential organizational instabilities pose a substantial challenge for the mainstreaming of flexible approaches to climate adaptation. Given the unstable character of the relevant organizational landscape in a very stable country such as Sweden, it seems reasonable to also seriously doubt the capacity of the relevant authorities in less stable countries to carry out a great number of monitoringintensive, and hence attention-demanding, adaptive governance processes over time. Based on our results we argue that it is perilous to simply assume that flexible approaches to climate adaptation will lead to greater robustness.

“The Greatest Benefit Is to Think Differently”: Experiences of Developing and Using a Web-Based Tool for Decision-Making under Deep Uncertainty for Adaptation to Sea Level Rise in Municipalities

“…The challenges for using robust decision support methods in CCA were further explored by [16], who argued that even in a stable country like Sweden, organisational instabilities pose a substantial challenge to the mainstreaming of flexible approaches to climate adaptation. Therefore, the authors concluded that one cannot assume that flexible approaches to climate adaptation will lead to greater robustness, as there is a substantial risk that planned decisions will not be properly implemented and monitored [16]. Finally, a study based on interviews with the civil servants who attended the three workshops when the robust decision support method was used was conducted in 2018 and 2019 [17].…”

Cap. 31. Adaptación. En: La Quinta Evaluación Nacional del Clima

“…• planificar y anticipar múltiples futuros posibles para responder a condiciones cambiantes y consecuencias imprevistas 235,236,237,238 ;…”