The fiscal projection framework in long-term scenarios

Guillemette, Yvan; Turner, David

doi:10.1787/8eddfa18-en

Cited by 8 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 9 publications

(14 reference statements)

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“…This paper has the advantage that the tariff and NTM profile that is imposed in the WTO scenario is specific to the Netherlands. This is an improvement on some approaches in the existing literature on the impact of Brexit on Netherlands as country specific tariff and NTM profiles can differ substantially from an aggregate EU wide profile (Arriola et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 89%

The potential economic impact of Brexit on the Netherlands

Smith¹,

Arriola²,

Carrico³

et al. 2018

OECD Economics Department Working Papers

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This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. 2  ECO/WKP(2018)66 THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPACT OF BREXIT ON THE NETHERLANDS Unclassified OECD Working Papers should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its member countries. The opinions expressed and arguments employed are those of the author(s). Working Papers describe preliminary results or research in progress by the author(s) and are published to stimulate discussion on a broad range of issues on which the OECD works. Comments on Working Papers are welcomed, and may be sent to the Economics Department, OECD,

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 89%

The potential economic impact of Brexit on the Netherlands

Smith¹,

Arriola²,

Carrico³

et al. 2018

OECD Economics Department Working Papers

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show abstract

“…It does, however, make it easier to illustrate the impact of reform packages than with a baseline incorporating speculation about likely reforms. The two exceptions to the no policy-change rule are for rising average educational attainmentbecause younger generations acquire more education and gradually replace older ones 3 and rising social protection spending by emerging market governmentsconsidered to be the flipside of the fall in investment and private saving rates that are bound to accompany these countries' development. Boxes 1 to 3 summarise the main features of the long-term model and provide references where more details can be found.…”

Section: The Baseline Scenario: a Continuation Of Current Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In its own empirical work to explain differences in GDP per capita, the World Bank has tended to use the rule of law, rather than other governance indicators, because it relates most closely to issues of contract enforcement and property rights, which as mentioned previously are considered most critical in the growth literature (Kaufmann and Kraay, 2002 [35] ). See Appendix 7 in Guillemette et al (2017 [3] ) for more on this indicator and its interpretation in the model.…”

Section: Institutional Reforms Would Speed Up the Convergence Of Emermentioning

confidence: 99%

“…THE LONG VIEW: SCENARIOS FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY TO 2060 © OECD 2018 country catches up to its equilibrium labour efficiency level, and vice-versa (Guillemette et al, 2017 [3] ).…”

Section: │ 21mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…10. The effects used in the long-term model are from Guillemette et al (2017 [3] ), Égert (2017 [46] ) and Égert and Gal (2017 [4] ), but the body of OECD work on this topic is much larger; see the aforementioned papers for references.…”

Section: Product Market Liberalisation Could Lift All Three Componentmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Long View

Guillemette¹,

Turner²

2018

OECD Economic Policy Papers

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The OECD Economic Policy Paper Series is published on the responsibility of the Secretary General of the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Organisation or of the governments of its member countries. Series: OECD Economic Policy Papers ISNN:2226583X On 3 May 2018, the OECD Council invited Lithuania to become a Member. At the time of preparation, the deposit of Lithuania's instrument of accession to the OECD Convention was pending and therefore Lithuania does not appear in the list of OECD Members and is not included in the OECD zone aggregates. On 25 May 2018, the OECD Council invited Colombia to become a Member. At the time of preparation, the deposit of Colombia's instrument of accession to the OECD Convention was pending and therefore Colombia does not appear in the list of OECD Members and is not included in the OECD zone aggregates. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area

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Fiscal foresighting: analysis of researches

Chekina

2021

Ekon. promisl.

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In the context of the rapid technology development and globalization transformations, predicting changes in the economy, which affect fiscal system, is extremely relevant. Therefore, fiscal foresight as a mean of predicting a fiscal policy development in the long run is becoming an integral part of tax policy and economic development elaboration in many countries of the world. The objective of the paper is to analyse theoretical aspects of fiscal foresight, as well as foreign and national experience in fiscal foresights’ preparation to identify long-term factors and indicators that will have a significant impact (both positive and negative) on a fiscal system in a distant future. It was established that fiscal foresighting is a process of collecting data on the future to assess long-term prospects for the stability of tax revenues and budget expenditures in the face of changes in macroeconomic and other factors affecting the national economy. The main components of fiscal foresighting are identifying and monitoring trends, scanning and monitoring the time horizon, identifying risks and problems, and developing scenarios. Analysis of foreign fiscal foresights has shown that they become the basis for the development of shorter-term plans for the advance of fiscal systems, pointing out the main directions of fiscal policy, risks and barriers to achieving the goals. However, conducting an interstate analysis of a fiscal foresight remains problematic. This is due to the fact, that there is no single methodology for preparing fiscal foresights, countries choose different research horizons and update periods. It was defined that the basis for the goal-setting of national fiscal foresights was taken: reducing the level of income and welfare inequality, fighting against tax evasion, the transition to a "green" economy, promoting the digital development, stabilizing the socio-demographic condition with an unambiguous conclusion about the need to make adjustments to a national tax system. Countries have chosen as the main long-term fiscal policy actions: "rebalancing" the tax structure from direct taxes on labour and capital to indirect taxes on consumption and taxes on property and resource use; the transition from models based on ownership/sales to models based on the use of assets/goods/services; the introduction of new taxes, changes in rates, etc., the use of digital technologies in the tax payment and administration processes. The analysis of the socio-economic situation in Ukraine was carried out in order to identify factors that are critical in the development of the main vectors for the advance of the country's fiscal system in the future. These are recognized as: demographic and social changes, "depletion" of demand in the face of increased competition and the dependence of the export-oriented economy on the international environment and turbulence in the international economy, income inequality, digitalization, tax evasion, environmental degradation. Based on the results of the analysis of the "National Economic Strategy for the Period up to 2030", it was established that the actions indicated in the Strategy can become the initial data for the development of the first national fiscal foresight as a basis for assessing the long-term sustainability of the current fiscal system , identifying opportunities and risks of transformations of the fiscal policy of Ukraine under the influence of megatrends and intrastate changes associated with the peculiarities of the country's socio-economic development.

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The fiscal projection framework in long-term scenarios

Cited by 8 publications

References 9 publications

The potential economic impact of Brexit on the Netherlands

The potential economic impact of Brexit on the Netherlands

The Long View

Fiscal foresighting: analysis of researches

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