The first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa: a cross-sectional study

Salyer, Stephanie J.; Maeda, Justin; Sembuche, Senga; Kebede, Yenew; Tshangela, Akhona; Moussif, Mohamed; Ihekweazu, Chikwe; Mayet, Natalie; Abate, Ebba; Ouma, Ahmed Ogwell; Nkengasong, John N.

doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(21)00632-2

Cited by 332 publications

(356 citation statements)

References 35 publications

(29 reference statements)

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“…Socio-economic environments may have affected testing systems, as we saw two countries in the South-East Asia Region, India and Indonesia, were classified in the same group ( Figure 4 ). However, it is also interesting that low- and middle-income countries have not always suffered from a high disease burden of COVID-19 ( Figure 4 and Figure 5 , Table S2 ) [ 30 , 31 , 32 ]. A recent study from Taiwan suggests that both case-based and population-based interventions including testing are required for COVID-19 containment [ 33 ].…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relationship of Test Positivity Rates with COVID-19 Epidemic Dynamics

Furuse

Ninomiya

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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Detection and isolation of infected people are believed to play an important role in the control of the COVID-19 pandemic. Some countries conduct large-scale screenings for testing, whereas others test mainly people with high prior probability of infection such as showing severe symptoms and/or having an epidemiological link with a known or suspected case or cluster of cases. However, what a good testing strategy is and whether the difference in testing strategy shows a meaningful, measurable impact on the COVID-19 epidemic remain unknown. Here, we showed that patterns of association between effective reproduction number (Rt) and test positivity rate can illuminate differences in testing situation among different areas, using global and local data from Japan. This association can also evaluate the adequacy of current testing systems and what information is captured in COVID-19 surveillance. The differences in testing systems alone cannot predict the results of epidemic containment efforts. Furthermore, monitoring test positivity rates and severe case proportions among the nonelderly can predict imminent case count increases. Monitoring test positivity rates in conjunction with the concurrent Rt could be useful to assess and strengthen public health management and testing systems and deepen understanding of COVID-19 epidemic dynamics.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relationship of Test Positivity Rates with COVID-19 Epidemic Dynamics

Furuse

Ninomiya

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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“…Regarding low- and middle-income countries, fewer economic resources translate to less surveillance and testing capacity, which increases underreporting and hinders the assessment of effectiveness of NPIs. However, in the first pandemic wave many Sub-Saharan African countries implemented social distancing measures before the first detected case 36 , which may have played a role in the low burden of disease encountered in the region during that time 107 . Nonetheless, in Africa, the second wave has been more severe, and despite this situation the stringency of the measures implemented in the continent is decreasing 107 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, in the first pandemic wave many Sub-Saharan African countries implemented social distancing measures before the first detected case 36 , which may have played a role in the low burden of disease encountered in the region during that time 107 . Nonetheless, in Africa, the second wave has been more severe, and despite this situation the stringency of the measures implemented in the continent is decreasing 107 . The knowledge of NPIs effectiveness for specific regions should not only be limited to high-income counties in order to allow policy makers worldwide to make tailored decisions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Systematic review of empirical studies comparing the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19

Méndez-Brito

Bcheraoui

Pozo-Martin

2021

Journal of Infection

208

151

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Objectives To evaluate which non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been more and less effective in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods We performed a systematic review of published and unpublished empirical studies, either observational or interventional, analysing the comparative effectiveness of NPIs against the COVID-19 pandemic. We searched Embase/Medline and medRxiv to identify the relevant literature. Results We identified 34 studies. During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, school closing was the most effective NPI, followed by workplace closing, business and venue closing and public event bans. Public information campaigns and mask wearing requirements were also effective in controlling the pandemic while being less disruptive for the population than other NPIs. There was no evidence on the effectiveness of public transport closure, testing and contact tracing strategies and quarantining or isolation of individuals. Early implementation was associated with a higher effectiveness in reducing COVID-19 cases and deaths, while general stringency of the NPIs was not. Conclusions In this systematic review, we found that school closing, followed by workplace closing, business and venue closing and public event bans were the most effective NPIs in controlling the spread of COVID-19. An early response and a combination of specific social distancing measures are effective at reducing COVID-19 cases and deaths. Continuous monitoring of NPIs effectiveness is needed in order to adapt decision making.

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“…There are a plethora of factors that are consistently stressed as forces shaping the African COVID-19 puzzle. This includes but may not be limited to the following: effective health emergency coordination and management, late onset–early preparedness and response, history of epidemic outbreaks and effective containment, efficacy of local/alternative medicines and Africa’s large youthful population (Hamann et al 2020 ; Oppong 2020 ; Wadvalla 2020 ; Iwuoha et al 2020 ; Maeda and Nkengasong 2021 ; Salyer et al 2021 ). Though it is beyond the scope of this study to verify these positions or quantify their relative contributions, it is very glaring that there is an interplay of factors at work than just poverty.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Geographical Analysis of the African COVID-19 Paradox: Putting the Poverty-as-a-Vaccine Hypothesis to the Test

et al. 2021

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The poverty-as-a-vaccine hypothesis came to light following the wide circulation of the controversial British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) World Service post on the internet and social media. It was a theoretical response to what this paper has termed as “the African COVID-19 paradox” or what some have characterised as the “African COVID-19 anomaly” whose thesis is though Africa is the poorest continent in the world, yet it has some of the lowest COVID-19 infection and mortality rates globally. This paradoxical profile apparently contradicts earlier and grim projections by several international bodies on the fate of Africa in this global health crisis. Given this background, we specifically tested the validity of the hypothesis from a geographic perspective within the spatial framework of Africa. Data came from secondary sources. Evidence truly points out a significant negative relationship between COVID-19 and poverty in Africa and thus statistically supports the poverty-as-a-vaccine hypothesis. However, this does not confirm that poverty confers immunity against COVID-19 but it implicitly shows there are complex factors responsible for the anomaly. The main conclusion of the paper is that poverty has no protective immunity against COVID-19 in Africa and is therefore not tenable.

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The first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa: a cross-sectional study

Cited by 332 publications

References 35 publications

Relationship of Test Positivity Rates with COVID-19 Epidemic Dynamics

Relationship of Test Positivity Rates with COVID-19 Epidemic Dynamics

Systematic review of empirical studies comparing the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19

A Geographical Analysis of the African COVID-19 Paradox: Putting the Poverty-as-a-Vaccine Hypothesis to the Test

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