The fate of rangelands: Revealing past and predicting future land‐cover transitions from 1985 to 2036 in the drylands of Central Iran

Abstract

Land serves as a vital production resource, and therefore land planning plays an important role in sustainable land‐use design. Iran includes large areas of the world's drylands, many of which are used as rangelands, and where the population has increased by 60% from 1985 to 2016. Further population increase in Iran would probably require more land resources to be allocated for human needs. However, the pace and patterns of these changes remain unclear. The aim of this study was to map land‐cover change from 1985 to 2016 and predict future land‐cover change in the Zayandehrood ecologic sub‐basins of Central Iran. By using multiseasonal LANDSAT imagery, we mapped land‐cover change with a Random Forest classifier for 1985, 1998, and 2016 with an overall accuracy of 80% for each period. Classification results revealed that from 1985 to 2016 residential areas doubled and industrial areas increased at the expense of rangelands. Our study also revealed cropland expansion at the expense of rangelands, cropland abandonment, and contraction of croplands due to residential and industrial development. Prediction of changes by 2036 with a multilayer perceptron neural network and Markov chain analysis showed further expansion of industries and residencies, particularly near the Ghamashlu Wildlife Refuge. Despite the partial restoration of rangelands in some parts of the world, our study provides evidence of ongoing rangeland degradation in Iran due to conversion to other land uses. Therefore, the study underscores the importance of sustainable land management of already cultivated areas and the development of strategies for the protection of global rangelands.

Land use changes, degradation, and impact on ecosystem services in Asia and Southeast Asia

“…Their research reports that more than half of the surveyed households have experienced a decline in the land available for food production over the past 30 years. Another study in Iran by Mazloum et al (2021) highlights the tension between urbanization, population growth, and the finite availability of land resources. Converting rangelands for residential, industrial, and agricultural purposes jeopardizes ecosystems and biodiversity, reflecting a common struggle in regions pursuing economic growth without compromising ecological equilibrium.…”

Multiple trajectories of grassland fragmentation, degradation, and recovery in Russia's steppes

“…The savannas of Saharan and subSaharan Africa are under pressure from agricultural expansion, mining, and wood extraction, including charcoal production (Herrmann et al, 2020;Mensah et al, 2020;Ordway et al, 2017). Due to their conversion to various land uses, rangelands in the Middle East are under pressure due to their conversion to various land uses (Mazloum et al, 2021). Therefore, there is an urgent need to reduce the further degradation of steppes and to foster their recovery through measures such as the regulation of land use, landscape-adaptive land use, regulated access to steppes, regional and local waste management plans, and appreciation of steppes through education and outreach.…”

Scale Transition and Structure–Function Synergy Differentiation of Rural Residential Land: A Dimensionality Reduction Transmission Process from Macro to Micro Scale

“…At present, the research on rural residential areas mainly focuses on its quantity change [24,25], spatial distribution [26,27], utilization state [28,29], regulation mode [30,31], etc., which all belong to the research category of land use and land-cover change (LUCC) in the early stage and rarely involve research on the transition of rural residential areas. In 2006, Long [32] proposed the basic concept and measurement method of rural homestead transition and applied it to specific areas.…”