The evolutionary making of SARS-CoV-2

Abstract

Covid-19 is the most devastating pandemic of the past 100 years. A zoonotic transfer presumably at a wildlife market introduced the causative virus, SARS-CoV-2 (sarbecovirus; beta-coronavirus), to humans in late 2019. Meanwhile, the mechanistic details of the infection process have been largely elucidated, and structural models explain binding of the virial spike to the human cell surface receptor ACE2. Yet, the evolutionary trajectory that gave rise to this pathogen is poorly understood. Here we scan SARS-CoV-2 protein sequences in-silico for innovations along the evolutionary lineage starting with the last common ancestor of coronaviruses. Substantial differences in the sets of proteins encoded by SARS-CoV-2 and viruses outside sarbecovirus, and in their domain architectures, indicate divergent functional demands. By contrast, sarbecoviruses themselves are almost fully conserved at these levels of resolution. However, profiling spike evolution on the sub-domain level using predicted linear epitopes reveals that this protein was gradually reshaped within sarbecovirus. The only epitope that is private to SARS-CoV-2 overlaps with the furin cleavage site. This lends phylogenetic support to the hypothesis that a change in strategy facilitated the zoonotic transfer of SARS-CoV-2 and its success as a human pathogen. Upon furin cleavage, spike switches from a “stealth mode” where immunodominant ACE2 binding epitopes are largely hidden to an “attack mode” where these epitopes are exposed. The resulting reinforcement of ACE2 binding extends the window of opportunity for cell entry. SARS-CoV-2 variants fine-tuning this mode switch will be particularly threatening as they optimize immune evasion.