The Evolution of the Elderly Labor Force Participation and Retirement in Brazil

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the length of retirement in a less developed economy with large public pension program, Brazil. We analyze the evolution of labor force participation and retirement since 1979 and estimate the expected length of retirement from 1979 to 2098 for both males and females. We use a stochastic model (Lee-Carter) to forecast labor force participation rates. Combining these estimates to UN mortality forecasts. We estimate the expected length of retirement. We find a steady decline in the labor force participation of young adults and elderly over time, mostly due to access to education and public pension programs, whereas for females we observed a constant increase for the prime-age women. Our findings also indicate that the expected length of retirement might increase from 10% to over 20% of Brazilian working lives, as people leave the labor force at early ages and live longer lives.

Saída precoce do mercado de trabalho: aposentadoria ou discriminação?

“…A longer life together with improvements in health conditions may lead people to plan on working for longer. This decision depends on health conditions as well as the value of the retirement benefit, savings, schooling, type of occupation (more or less physically demanding), and of course labour market conditions 3,4 , amongst others.…”