The evolution of oceanic and atmospheric anomalies in the northeast Pacific during the El Niño and La Niña events of 1995–2001

Schwing, Franklin B.; Murphree, Tom; deWitt, Lynn; Green, P.M.

doi:10.1016/s0079-6611(02)00064-2

Cited by 145 publications

(145 citation statements)

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“…In particular, positive anomalies lasting in 1999 become weak after 2000 and then strong again in 2002; negative anomalies, which are expected to occur subsequently, are not found. This warming trend of JES is supposed to be a local demonstration associated with recent global warming since the late 1990s (McPhaden, 2002;Minobe, 2002;Schwing et al, 2002;CLIVAR, 2003;Oelke et al, 2004).…”

Section: Temporal Variability At Maximum Correlation Be-mentioning

confidence: 93%

Interannual SST variability in the Japan/East Sea and relationship with environmental variables

Park

Chu

2006

J Oceanogr

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Section: Temporal Variability At Maximum Correlation Be-mentioning

confidence: 93%

Interannual SST variability in the Japan/East Sea and relationship with environmental variables

Park

Chu

2006

J Oceanogr

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“…The statistical forecast is constructed using a multiple linear regression, where the observed SST anomaly at a given initialization month and lead time is fit as a function of both the CCS and Niño 3.4 SST anomalies the month prior to forecast initialization. For example, a statistical forecast of June initialized in February (4-month lead time) would fit the observed June SST anomalies as a function of the CCS and Niño 3.4 SST anomalies in January events, with El Niño (La Niña) conditions typically bringing reduced (increased) upwelling intensity and consequently positive (negative) SST anomalies (Jacox et al 2015b;Schwing et al 2002). This atmospheric teleconnection is fast, with the CCS response lagging the tropics by a few weeks to a month, and upwelling anomalies during ENSO events typically persisting through ~April (Alexander et al 2002;Jacox et al 2015b).…”

Section: Mechanisms Of Sst Predictabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

On the skill of seasonal sea surface temperature forecasts in the California Current System and its connection to ENSO variability

et al. 2017

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underlie SST predictability. A simple persistence forecast provides considerable skill for lead times up to ~4 months, while skill above persistence is mostly confined to forecasts of late winter/spring and derives primarily from predictable evolution of ENSO-related variability. Specifically, anomalously weak (strong) equatorward winds are skillfully forecast during El Niño (La Niña) events, and drive negative (positive) upwelling anomalies and consequently warm (cold) temperature anomalies. This mechanism prevails during moderate to strong ENSO events, while years of ENSO-neutral conditions are not associated with significant forecast skill in the wind or significant skill above persistence in SST. We find also a strong latitudinal gradient in predictability within the CCS; SST forecast skill is highest off the Washington/Oregon coast and lowest off southern California, consistent with variable wind forcing being the dominant driver of SST predictability. These findings have direct implications for regional downscaling of seasonal forecasts and for short-term management of living marine resources.

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“…For instance, the influence of the strong 1997/1998 El Niño and subsequent La Niña on the coastal upwelling ecosystem of the US west coast has been well documented by a variety of observational studies that focus on the physics and hydrography (e.g., Collins et al, 2002;Kosro, 2002;Lynn and Bograd, 2002;Ryan and Noble, 2002;Schwing et al, 2002b), on nutrients and primary production (e.g., Castro et al, 2002;Mitchell, 2000, 2002;Kudela and Chavez, 2002), and on zooplankton and higher trophic levels (e.g., Benson et al, 2002;Hopcroft et al, 2002;Pearcy, 2002;Peterson et al, 2002). A handful of observational studies have investigated the impact of the 1982/1983 El Niño on the physical regime of the CalCS (e.g., Simpson, 1983;Huyer and Smith, 1985) and the effect of the 2002/2003 El Niño on the physics and biology (e.g., Murphree et al, 2003;Schwing et al, 2002a).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Response of O<sub>2</sub> and pH to ENSO in the California Current System in a high-resolution global climate model

et al. 2018

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Abstract. Coastal upwelling systems, such as the California Current System (CalCS), naturally experience a wide range of O 2 concentrations and pH values due to the seasonality of upwelling. Nonetheless, changes in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have been shown to measurably affect the biogeochemical and physical properties of coastal upwelling regions. In this study, we use a novel, high-resolution global climate model (GFDL-ESM2.6) to investigate the influence of warm and cold ENSO events on variations in the O 2 concentration and the pH of the CalCS coastal waters. An assessment of the CalCS response to six El Niño and seven La Niña events in ESM2.6 reveals significant variations in the response between events. However, these variations overlay a consistent physical and biogeochemical (O 2 and pH) response in the composite mean. Focusing on the mean response, our results demonstrate that O 2 and pH are affected rather differently in the euphotic zone above ∼ 100 m. The strongest O 2 response reaches up to several hundreds of kilometers offshore, whereas the pH signal occurs only within a ∼ 100 km wide band along the coast. By splitting the changes in O 2 and pH into individual physical and biogeochemical components that are affected by ENSO variability, we found that O 2 variability in the surface ocean is primarily driven by changes in surface temperature that affect the O 2 solubility. In contrast, surface pH changes are predominantly driven by changes in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), which in turn is affected by upwelling, explaining the confined nature of the pH signal close to the coast. Below ∼ 100 m, we find conditions with anomalously low O 2 and pH, and by extension also anomalously low aragonite saturation, during La Niña. This result is consistent with findings from previous studies and highlights the stress that the CalCS ecosystem could periodically undergo in addition to impacts due to climate change.

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The evolution of oceanic and atmospheric anomalies in the northeast Pacific during the El Niño and La Niña events of 1995–2001

Cited by 145 publications

References 50 publications

Interannual SST variability in the Japan/East Sea and relationship with environmental variables

Interannual SST variability in the Japan/East Sea and relationship with environmental variables

On the skill of seasonal sea surface temperature forecasts in the California Current System and its connection to ENSO variability

Response of O<sub>2</sub> and pH to ENSO in the California Current System in a high-resolution global climate model

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The evolution of oceanic and atmospheric anomalies in the northeast Pacific during the El Niño and La Niña events of 1995–2001

Cited by 145 publications

References 50 publications

Interannual SST variability in the Japan/East Sea and relationship with environmental variables

Interannual SST variability in the Japan/East Sea and relationship with environmental variables

On the skill of seasonal sea surface temperature forecasts in the California Current System and its connection to ENSO variability

Response of O&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; and pH to ENSO in the California Current System in a high-resolution global climate model

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

Response of O<sub>2</sub> and pH to ENSO in the California Current System in a high-resolution global climate model