The Evangelical Vote and Race in the 2016 Presidential Election

Abstract

This paper highlights differences in evangelical identity and its association with political attitudes across racial groups. It finds that White evangelicals hold more conservative views than Black, Latinx, and Asian American evangelicals, despite similar levels of religiosity. White evangelicals' more conservative political attitudes are driven by a sense of in-group embattlement, or the idea that their group faces as much or more discrimination as persecuted outgroups. This sense of in-group embattlement is distinct from the effects of economic resources, economic anxiety, partisanship, region (South) and generalized conservative outlook. The paper draws on survey data collected in the immediate aftermath of the 2016 election.

Polls and Elections: The Skeptical Faithful: How Trump Gained Momentum among Evangelicals

“…Not only are white evangelicals more conservative than evangelicals of other races, but their conservatism also takes on a siege mentality. They express anxiety about the dissolution of traditional communal boundaries, and longing for a time when the American national community was much more racially homogenous (Wong 2018). In this context, Trump's proposed ban on Muslim immigration had as much to do with patrolling traditional community boundaries as with the prevention of terrorism (Braunstein 2017).…”

On the Ballot in 2020: Will the United States (finally) embrace civil rights?

“…Looking further back, we see that our nation's founders saw the U.S. nation-state as a product of divine benevolence. The idea of manifest destiny-that the United States was "destined" to be an Anglo-Saxon Protestant nation that stretched from coast to coast-had its roots in colonial political thought (Smith 1997) and the connection between racial attitudes and religiosity remains until today (Grose 2018;Wong 2018). In a letter to his father in 1811, John Quincy Adams wrote:…”

The Paradox of Race, Religion, and Representation: The Persistent Influence of White Evangelicals and the Decline of White Religious Voters

“…Eighty-one percent of white evangelicals voted for Donald Trump in 2016 (Wong 2018). This cohesion among a racial and religious group for one candidate and one party is higher than almost all social groups.…”

“…The 2016 election of Donald Trump, a person who does not appear to frequently attend religious services himself, was due to core support among white evangelicals. Among whites who do not identify as evangelical, Hillary Clinton received 59% of the vote (Wong 2018). Among African Americans, Latinos, and Asian Americans who identify as born-again evangelicals and those who do not, large majorities did not support Trump and voted for Clinton (Wong 2018).…”

“…Among whites who do not identify as evangelical, Hillary Clinton received 59% of the vote (Wong 2018). Among African Americans, Latinos, and Asian Americans who identify as born-again evangelicals and those who do not, large majorities did not support Trump and voted for Clinton (Wong 2018). Further, people of color who attend or who rarely attend religious services voted for Clinton in 2016 (according to the 2016 Collaborative Multi-racial Post-election Survey or CMPS).…”