The European Revolutions and Revolutionary Waves of the 19th Century: Their Causes and Consequences

Гринин, Леонид

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-86468-2_11

Cited by 17 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…We have pointed out (see Grinin 2022bGrinin , 2022d) that this role diminishes in the course of historical process, while the risk of revolutionary societies falling into a vicious circle of recurrent turnovers increases. Thus, in the future, similar to earlier periods, some countries will enter quite long periods of revolutionary epochs (about such epochs see Goldstone et al 2022a andGrinin 2022a). This means that countries that have experienced revolutions but still lack a stable political system (such as Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgystan) may face them again and fall into revolutionary traps (see Khodunov 2022c; Shevsky 2022; Ivanov 2022).…”

Section: The Future Of Revolution In Other Analytical Aspectsmentioning

confidence: 97%

The Twenty-First Century Revolutions as a Factor in the Reconfiguration of the World System

Grinin,

Grinin

2023

JGS

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At present the World System and world order are undergoing dramatic transformations. Revolutions definitely will be an integral part of these systemic changes; therefore, their numbers as well as the world-system effect are likely to be significant. In this article, the authors analyze in what way the twenty-first century revolutions examined in this article be connected with the transformations of the World System and world order. The authors' argument is based on the theory of the periodical catch-ups experienced by the political component of the World System, which tends to lag behind the economic component. Such gaps are eventually bridged, but not in a smooth way. On the contrary, this catch-up is likely to be rather complex, turbulent and conflictive. The twenty-first century revolutions appear to be part of a broad and conflict-ridden process of catch-up of the World-System's political component to its economic component. This catch-up provokes strong structural transformations, which the authors describe as the reconfiguration of the World System. They think that with the Arab Spring there started a reconfiguration of the World System that will remain associated with revolutionary processes in the twenty-first century. The authors expect that in connection with the political catch-up the number of revolutions as well as their role as a means of the world-system transformation will not decrease, but in some respects may even increase noticeably. Anton Grinin and Leonid Grinin analyze the future of revolutions in terms of their typology and also of some other aspects, namely: 1) the evaluation of their number in comparison with the previous period; 2) their role as a tool defining the future progress of societies and the World System; 3) the scale and power of revolutions; 4) the possibility of revolutionary waves, and 5) possible changes of the forms of revolutionary events.

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Section: The Future Of Revolution In Other Analytical Aspectsmentioning

confidence: 97%

The Twenty-First Century Revolutions as a Factor in the Reconfiguration of the World System

Grinin,

Grinin

2023

JGS

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“…1 See also our studies of the complex relationship between the processes covered by the terms of modernization and revolutions (e.g., Grinin 2012Grinin , 2013Grinin , 2017aGrinin , 2017bGrinin , 2022bKorotayev 2012a, 2012b;Korotayev et al 2011;.…”

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confidence: 99%

Introduction. Destabilization as a Phenomenon of Social Dynamics

Гринин¹,

Korotayev²

2022

HISTORY &Amp; MATHEMATICS: Entropy and Destabilization

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The present issue, subtitled Entropy and Destabilization (which is the tenth in the series), is largely devoted to the various manifestations of destabilization. Destabilization, or at least the threat of it, is an inevitable stage in the historical development of any society. The question is to what extent a society is capable of resisting it, how institutionalized and adaptive, using S. Huntington's characteristics (Huntington 1968), it is to the various threats. The analysis shows that, on the one hand, societies capable of achieving a sustainably reproducible order are able not only to overcome such threats, but also to institutionalize mechanisms that will prevent the occurrence of such situations. On the other hand, historical experience shows that institutions become outdated and insufficiently effective. As a result, they no longer protect society from crises as they used to do. The migration crisis that hit Europe in early 2015 nearly split it, causing political disarray in a number of states, and showed that European countries at that time had forgotten to do what they used to do so well in previous years: to strictly maintain order and protect their borders. The 2016 and 2020 U.S. presidential elections caused a considerable division of American society and an unprecedented confrontation in the political system since the Civil War. And the consequences of this confrontation continue to have a huge impact on American society.

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