The European Green Deal and turbulence for non-member states

Abstract

The European Green Deal (EGD) has had a significant impact on EU member states. In this article, we examine the extent to which it can also have large consequences for non-members. Based on a qualitative approach comparing Norway and the UK, and drawing on a burgeoning literature on ‘turbulence’, we ask whether the EGD creates turbulence in non-member states, what the nature of this turbulence is, and whether the extent and nature of turbulence varies with how closely affiliated a non-member is with the EU. Despite the ambitious climate policies of both countries, we identify a significant amount of turbulence generated by the EGD. Interestingly, we also find that turbulence increases with a closer EU-affiliation. However, our analysis also reveals an impressive capacity in both countries to adapt to their turbulent conditions, and a surprising durability of climate and energy policy in the face of turbulence.