The euro exchange rate and Germany's trade surplus

Hohberger, Stefan; Ratto, Marco; Vogel, Lukas

doi:10.1111/infi.12359

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…e research scope of interest rate parity has expanded from commodity market to capital market. e main research object is the relationship between the expected exchange rate and the stock price of listed companies [9,10]. Interest rate parity theory reveals the intrinsic relationship between interest rate as asset price and Scientific Programming currency exchange rate.…”

Section: Interest Rate Paritymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Experts and scholars in economics and finance all over the world begin to study the changes in interest rate and currency exchange rate from the perspective of the global foreign exchange market, stock market, and bond market. With the improvement of international trade tightness of countries all over the world [9,11,12] and as the world economy becomes more integrated, financial capital flows from countries with low interest rates to countries with high interest rates, due to differences in interest rates in their domestic markets, which shows that in the process of international trade and transnational investment [13,14].…”

Section: Interest Rate Paritymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In formula (9), C, I, G, and (X − M) are the total consumption, total investment, government expenditure, and net export, respectively. In the formula, residents' consumption C is a function of asset price, exchange rate, and residents' disposable net income, expressed as…”

Section: Impact Of Changes In Asset Prices and Exchange Ratesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Exchange Rate Transaction of International Trade Goods Based on Fuzzy Granulation and Deep Learning

Jin¹,

Han

2021

Scientific Programming

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The change of international trade goods exchange rate transaction has an impact on economic operations and economic stability. Therefore, an international trade goods exchange rate transaction based on fuzzy granulation and in-depth learning is proposed. Based on fuzzy information granulation and BP neural network, this paper analyzes the interest rate evaluation theory. For the future expectation of currency exchange rate, portfolio equilibrium determines the proportional relationship of each component in the portfolio and analyzes the impact of asset price and exchange rate change according to this relationship. Then, it points out the risk evaluation index system, calculates the risk degree of exchange rate transaction of international trade goods, and then evaluates the risk of exchange rate transaction of international trade goods. It completes the research on exchange rate transactions of international trade goods based on fuzzy granulation and in-depth learning. The experimental results show that excessive exchange rate fluctuation will bring the same proportion fluctuation to the asset price in the financial market, and the coordination between exchange rates and the coordination of exchange rate and asset price can promote the steady growth of national economy.

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Section: Interest Rate Paritymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Interest Rate Paritymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Exchange Rate Transaction of International Trade Goods Based on Fuzzy Granulation and Deep Learning

Jin¹,

Han

2021

Scientific Programming

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“…Referring to the literature discussed in this paragraph, this does not seem very likely, however. Furthermore, it is also unclear still what exactly drives the investment draught, and there are most likely other reasons than an investment risk premium (see, for example,Kollmann et al, 2015, andVogel, 2020, for a discussion). Hence, our modelling choice should be seen as a stylized short cut to generate an investment draught.…”

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confidence: 99%

Household Savings, Capital Investments and Public Policies: What Drives the German Current Account?

Ruppert

Stähler

2020

SSRN Journal

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Research QuestionWhat drives the high and persistent German current account surplus since the turn of the millennium? To many, the Agenda 2010 reforms (several structural labor market and tax reforms), population aging and pension reforms as well as a tight German fiscal stance are responsible for it. European and international institutions have repeatedly asked Germany to reduce their current account surplus. To do so, however, it is necessary to understand its driving forces. ContributionIn this paper, we present a model that can account for a large part of the changes in the German current account balance since the 2000s. The model is a three-region New Keynesian model with a search-and-matching labor market, a fiscal block that includes a wide range of taxes and disaggregated government spending, and a life-cycle structure. The latter gives rise to a savings motive, which affects the German net foreign asset position. ResultsOur simulation results suggest that the structural tax and labor market reforms of the Agenda 2010, population aging and pension reforms led to an increase in the household savings rate in Germany until about 2010. As domestic investment opportunities could not absorb these additional savings, they were partly invested abroad. The German current account-to-GDP ratio rose. Thereafter, however, household savings stayed high but did not increase further, both in the model simulations and in the data. Nevertheless, the observed German current account surplus still kept on rising. According to our simulations, a tight fiscal stance in Germany (combined with an expansionary stance in the rest of the world), a reduction in investment in the corporate sector and productivity gains in emerging economies after 2010, which increased demand for German goods and investment opportunities there, contributed to this. Nichttechnische ZusammenfassungFragestellung Was treibt den deutschen Leitungsbilanzüberschuss seit der Jahrtausendwende? Viele machen dafür die Agenda 2010-Reformen (strukturelle Arbeitsmarkt-und Steuerreformen), Bevölkerungsalterung und Rentenreformen sowie die sparsame deutsche Fiskalpolitik verantwortlich. Mehrere europäische und internationale Organisationen haben Deutschland wiederholt aufgefordert, den Leistungsbilanzüberschuss zu reduzieren. Um dies tun zu können, muss man jedoch erst verstehen, woher dieser kommt. BeitragWir präsentieren in diesem Papier ein Modell, das in der Lage ist, einen Großteil der Entwicklungen des deutschen Leistungsbilanzsaldos seit der Jahrtausendwende zu erklären. Es handelt sich um ein drei Weltregionen umfassendes neukeynesianisches Modell mit Suchfriktionen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt, einem Fiskalsektor mit differenzierter Steuerstruktur und disaggregierten Ausgabenkomponenten sowie einem Haushaltssektor mit Lebenszyklusstruktur. Diese Lebenszyklusstruktur erzeugt ein Sparmotiv, welches die deutsche Nettoauslandsvermögensposition, und damit die Leistungsbilanz, beeinflusst. ErgebnisseSimulationsergebnisse legen nahe, dass sich die Ersparnisbildung in Deutsc...

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What drives the German current account? Household savings, capital investments and public policies

Ruppert

Stähler

2022

Economic Modelling

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The euro exchange rate and Germany's trade surplus

Cited by 5 publications

References 16 publications

Exchange Rate Transaction of International Trade Goods Based on Fuzzy Granulation and Deep Learning

Exchange Rate Transaction of International Trade Goods Based on Fuzzy Granulation and Deep Learning

Household Savings, Capital Investments and Public Policies: What Drives the German Current Account?

What drives the German current account? Household savings, capital investments and public policies

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