The estimation of population size, migration rates and survival in a stratified population

Arnason, A. N.

doi:10.1007/bf02510705

Cited by 292 publications

(248 citation statements)

References 3 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

246

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…If chicks are ringed in several colonies and observed as breeders in the same set of colonies then the data can be analysed using multistratum capture^recapture models (Arnason 1973;Brownie et al 1993;Spendelow et al 1995). Such models can be adapted to allow the simultaneous estimation of probabilities of transitions between geographical sites and between reproductive states, i.e.…”

Section: (C) Future Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Conspecific reproductive success affects age of recruitment in a great cormorant, Phalacrocorax carbo sinensis , colony

Frederiksen

Bregnballe²

2001

Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Few studies have addressed the proximate factors a¡ecting the age at which individuals of long-lived bird species are recruited into the breeding population. We use capture^recapture analysis of resightings of 16 birth cohorts of colour-ringed great cormorants, Phalacrocorax carbo sinensis, in a Danish colony to assess the evidence for two hypotheses: conspeci¢c attraction (earlier recruitment when the colony is large) and conspeci¢c reproductive success (earlier recruitment following years of high breeding success). For both males and females, conspeci¢c reproductive success was the most important covariate explaining the interannual variation in age of recruitment; colony size was also important for females. These covariates explained nearly 60% of the year-to-year variation for both sexes. The age of recruitment increased for cohorts born after 1990, and this increase was correlated with a decline in breeding success in the colony; we interpret this as an indirect and delayed density-dependent e¡ect. Females were recruited earlier than males (mean age of recruitment for cohorts born before 1990: 2.98 years versus 3.53 years); the most plausible reason for this is a skewed sex ratio in favour of males in the adult population. Recruitment of males may thus, to some extent, be constrained by the availability of females. This study provides the ¢rst evidence that conspeci¢c reproductive success can a¡ect the age at which individual birds start to breed.

show abstract

Section: (C) Future Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Conspecific reproductive success affects age of recruitment in a great cormorant, Phalacrocorax carbo sinensis , colony

Frederiksen

Bregnballe²

2001

Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Demographic parameters can thereby be estimated within the framework of mark-recapture (MR) modelling. If one is able to observe absence and presence of eggs and chicks, hatching success and chick survival rate can be estimated as state transitions by using multistate modelling (Arnason 1973;Schwarz et al 1993). However, a photo will not necessarily reveal the true state of the egg or chick in a nest.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Multistate mark-recapture models allow us to estimate the probability of transition between states, provided that we are able to assign the study objects to a state whenever they are detected (Arnason 1973;Schwarz et al 1993). In the case of the Brünnich's Guillemots, the state is unknown every time the adult prevents us from seeing if the breeding site is empty or if it holds an egg or a chick.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling state uncertainty with photo series data for the estimation of breeding success in a cliff-nesting seabird

Lorentzen

Choquet²,

Steen

2011

J Ornithol

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Breeding success in cliff-nesting seabirds has until now been estimated through repeated nest checks by field workers during the breeding season. The use of automatic cameras offers a method for collecting markrecapture data that can be modelled in order to estimate productivity without making recurring inspections. This saves expense and work hours in the field and allows for more colonies to be monitored. Capture histories for Brünnich's Guillemot Uria lomvia breeding sites in a colony on Svalbard were generated using a series of photos taken by a time-lapse camera during the breeding season. To account for state uncertainty for the offspring when only the adult could be observed on the breeding site, we applied a multievent model. We estimated egg survival, hatching success and chick survival rates by modelling state transitions. Subsequently, the estimates were used to calculate breeding success. In order to assess the performance of the model, we compared the estimates with field observations of productivity. The observed breeding success in the study plot lay within the confidence intervals of the breeding success estimated by our model. We show that automatic cameras can be used to collect data which, by the application of new modelling techniques, will provide reliable estimates of demographic parameters that are vital for research and management of cliff-nesting birds. The method presented is a very good supplement to physical examination or ''manual'' around-the-clock monitoring of breeding birds.

show abstract

“…Even in a simple survival analysis, failure to take the probability of recapture and of temporary emigration from the study area into account can lead to inaccurate estimates of survival (Martin et al 1995). A better approach is to utilize methods that account for recapture probabilities and temporary emigration, such as the Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model (Cormack 1964, Jolly 1965, Seber 1965, and generalizations of this model, such as multistate capture-recapture models (Arnason 1972(Arnason , 1973Schwarz et al 1993). The latter would be the more appropriate choice for determining whether drawing blood increases the probability of death, because multistate models, unlike the traditional CJS model, allow for categorical variables that may change over an individual's life (e.g., a state variable such as whether or not a blood sample was drawn).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Biology of Eastern Kingbirds at Malheur National Wildlife Refuge: Survival, Reproduction, and Testosterone Secretion

Redmond

2000

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This dissertation presents the results of a study that I undertook to better understand the breeding biology of Eastern Kingbirds (hereafter, kingbirds) Kingbirds exhibit relatively high breeding site fidelity, often returning to the same tree to nest in subsequent years. Both members of a pair provide parental care, but there are often specific duties performed by both male and female kingbirds. For example, males typically perform much of the vigilant nest defense that this species is well known for and contribute, to an extent, to the feeding of nestlings. Females, on the other hand, are entirely responsible for incubating and brooding.Beginning in 2002, most adults within the population of kingbirds at Malheur had been banded with a unique combination of three colored plastic leg bands and an aluminum USFWS band. Also, as many nests were located in each year as possible, and any young that survived to fledging age were banded with a unique combination of leg bands. Considerable effort was then spent each year to locate as many banded individuals as possible, which allowed me to document adult and juvenile survival.Annual survival rates of adult male and female kingbirds in the population at Malheur did not differ and were relatively high at approximately 0.65. Juvenile survival rate was approximately 0.29, indicating that slightly less than one-third of nestlings survive the interval between fledging and their first potential breeding season. Resighting probability ii was high for both sexes, although higher for adult males (0.94) than for adult female (0.84). The latter finding is consistent with the higher site fidelity of males than of females. Resighting probabilities for juveniles were much lower at 0.68 and 0.40 for males and females, respectively. Again, this was expected because natal site fidelity is typically much lower than breeding site fidelity. Compared to most other reports, resighting probability and return rates of juvenile kingbirds was high, presumably because the riparian habitats where kingbirds breed at Malheur function as an ecological island surrounded by, for kingbirds, unsuitable high desert habitat. Thus, unless they disperse very long distances, the only option for juvenile kingbirds is to begin nesting on the refuge.The collection of blood samples from birds has become an increasingly common practice in ornithology. The data that can be gained from these samples allow a number of interesting questions to be asked such as understanding the genetic mating system of a species, patterns of hormone secretion, and discerning migratory pathways via stable isotope analysis. The volume of blood collected is usually small and was assumed to cause no long-term negative effects on sampled individuals. However, few studies have rigorously examined the effect of blood sampling on survival. I used a multistate markrecapture analysis to assess the effect blood sampling on annual survival of kingbirds by combining the annual survival data described above with whether or not individuals ...

show abstract

The estimation of population size, migration rates and survival in a stratified population

Cited by 292 publications

References 3 publications

Conspecific reproductive success affects age of recruitment in a great cormorant, Phalacrocorax carbo sinensis , colony

Conspecific reproductive success affects age of recruitment in a great cormorant, Phalacrocorax carbo sinensis , colony

Modelling state uncertainty with photo series data for the estimation of breeding success in a cliff-nesting seabird

The Biology of Eastern Kingbirds at Malheur National Wildlife Refuge: Survival, Reproduction, and Testosterone Secretion

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About