The Estimation of Mean Annual Temperature From the Temperatures of Preceding Years

The Analysis of Meteorological Time Series for Use in Forecasting

“…His conclusion was that whether the object was to predict a daily, a monthly or an annual mean temperature, an average taken over the most recent 15 to 25 years was better than one taken over any longer or shorter period. Craddock and Grimmer (1960), working independently, by trial and error, came to a very similar conclusion for annual mean temperatures. They also tried using a weighted average, with weights decreasing in geometrical progression into the past, but found this generally inferior to the unweighted average.…”

An Experiment in the Anaysis and Prediction of Time Series

“…In this experiment we take four trial values, namely, k = 4, 9, 16 and 25 which should be enough to show the general behaviour though not the detail of the solutions. The RMS errors will be E 3 to E 6 • (d) the exponentially weighted mean forecast 00 y Pn+1 = (1 -r) 1 riYn_i j=v This was used by Wagle (1966) for sales forecasting and has been tried without much success by Craddock and Grimmer (1960) on meteorological time series. While this method should do better than the unweighted mean if the series shows abrupt changes in level, the meteorological trials in Great Britain and in the Netherlands favoured the unweighted means.…”