The estimated schedule and mitigation potential for hydrofluorocarbons phase-down in China

Li, Yixi; Zhang, Zhaoyang; An, Minde; Gao, Deyuan; Yi, Li-Ying; Hu, Jianxin

doi:10.1016/j.accre.2019.10.002

Cited by 25 publications

(49 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…Data reported to the UNFCCC also show lower than projected consumption of HFC-143a with a reduction in use in the EU 455 and a stabilization in the USA and Japan. Consumption data reported for China also shows a reduced use of HFC-143a (Li et al, 2019). These lower emissions and reduced consumption cannot be linked directly to the provisions of the Kigali Amendment, since that only came into force in January 2019.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Their baseline 2050 emissions are about 4.3 GtCO2-eq yr -1 , which is consistent with our 2015 baseline, but higher than our "current policy" scenario that includes the consideration of 485 additional control measures in some countries. Li et al (2019) reported projections of HFC use and emissions for China. Their 2050 business-as-usual HFC emissions are about 0.9 GtCO2-eq yr -1 , which agrees well with our "current policy" (e.g., not including the Kigali Amendment) estimate for China of 0.9-1.3 GtCO2-eq yr -1 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Consumption data reported for developing countries is only available for China as reported by Li et al (2019Li et al ( ) for 1995Li et al ( -2017 the Kigali Amendment, but since this data is still incomplete it is not used in the scenarios 155 here. For India, consumption data is estimated from emissions inferred for 2016 by Say et al (2019) and used in the scenarios.…”

Section: Historical Hfc Consumption 125mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Also, reviews of bottom-up and top-down emission estimates of HFCs have recently been published by Montzka and Velders et al (2018) and Flerlage et al (2021). Historical 85 HFC consumption data for several use sectors in China have been reported by Li et al (2019) and Fang et al (2016) and for Chinese room air conditioning (AC) specifically by Liu et al (2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projections of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions and the resulting global warming based on recent trends in observed abundances and current policies

Velders

Daniel

Montzka

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Abstract. The emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) have increased significantly in the past two decades, primarily as a result of the phaseout of ozone depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol and the use of HFCs as their replacements. Projections from 2015 showed large increases in HFC use and emissions in this century in the absence of regulations, contributing up to 0.5 °C to global surface warming by 2100. In 2019, the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol came into force with the goal of limiting the use of HFCs globally, and currently, regulations to limit the use of HFCs are in effect in several countries. Here, we analyze trends in HFC emissions inferred from observations of atmospheric abundances and compare them with previous projections. Total CO2-eq inferred HFC emissions continue to increase through 2019 (to about 0.8 GtCO2-eq yr−1) but are about 20 % lower than previously projected for 2017–2019, mainly because of lower global emissions of HFC-143a. This indicates that HFCs are used much less in industrial and commercial refrigeration (ICR) applications than previously projected. This is supported by data reported by the developed countries and lower reported consumption of HFC-143a in China. Because this time-period preceded the beginning of the Kigali controls, this reduction cannot be linked directly to the provisions of the Kigali Amendment. However, it could indicate that companies transitioned away from the HFC-143a with its high global warming potential (GWP) for ICR applications, in anticipation of national or global mandates. A new HFC scenario is developed based on current trends in HFC use and current policies in several countries. These current policies reduce projected emissions in 2050 from the previously calculated 4.0–5.3 GtCO2-eq yr−1 to 1.9–3.6 GtCO2-eq yr−1. The provisions of the Kigali Amendment are projected to reduce the emissions further to 0.9–1.0 GtCO2-eq yr−1 in 2050. Without current policies, HFCs would be projected to contribute 0.28–0.44 °C to the global surface warming in 2100, compared to 0.14–0.31 °C with current policies, but without the Kigali Amendment. In contrast, the Kigali Amendment controls are expected to limit surface warming from HFCs to about 0.04 °C in 2100.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Historical Hfc Consumption 125mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Projections of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions and the resulting global warming based on recent trends in observed abundances and current policies

Velders

Daniel

Montzka

et al. 2022

Preprint

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“…Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), which are known to damage the ozone layer in the stratosphere, were widely used as refrigerants, blowing agents, electronic product cleaners, aerosols, extinguishing agents, and spray products before the environmental hazards were identified [1][2][3][4]. After the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) adopted the Montreal Protocol on the production and consumption of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) [5][6][7][8][9][10][11], CFCs production and consumption were gradually reduced; CFCs' use was banned outright in 2010.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation, and Framework Proposal of Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Fluorinated Substitutes for Ozone-Depleting Substances by Application Area in the Republic of Korea

Jung

Park

2020

Sustainability

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Since fluorine compounds have both high ozone depletion potential and high global warming potential, the study of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and perfluorocarbons (PFCs) is crucial for climate change research. In this study, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from ozone-depleting industries in the Republic of Korea were estimated based on survey data on the use of fluorine compounds. This study is a response to the growing global attention to halocarbons that arose from the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol. Survey data on the consumption of fluorine compounds by application area were used to estimate emissions by applying the 2019 refinement IPCC Guidelines Tier 1a method. In addition, both the consumption ratio of fluorine compounds in the refrigeration and air conditioning application area and total fluorine compounds consumption by application area were compared with the values suggested by the UN Environment Programme to compare the current status with that in developing and developed countries. By comparing the derived GHG emissions with current emissions in the National Inventory Report, it was confirmed that 14,565 GgCO2eq of GHG emissions differed. In addition, through the replacement of fluorine compounds used as refrigerants, 14,422 GgCO2eq of the GHG emissions can be reduced.

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Scenario analysis of hydrofluorocarbons emission reduction in China's mobile air-conditioning sector

Xiang

Xing-Chen

Jiang

et al. 2022

Advances in Climate Change Research

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The estimated schedule and mitigation potential for hydrofluorocarbons phase-down in China

Cited by 25 publications

References 12 publications

Projections of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions and the resulting global warming based on recent trends in observed abundances and current policies

Projections of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions and the resulting global warming based on recent trends in observed abundances and current policies

Estimation, and Framework Proposal of Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Fluorinated Substitutes for Ozone-Depleting Substances by Application Area in the Republic of Korea

Scenario analysis of hydrofluorocarbons emission reduction in China's mobile air-conditioning sector

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