The epidemiological signature of pathogen populations that vary in the relationship between free-living survival and virulence

Abstract

12The relationship between parasite virulence and transmission is a pillar of evolutionary theory 13 that has specific implications for public health. Part of this canon involves the idea that virulence 14 and free-living survival (a key component of transmission) may have different relationships in 15 different host-parasite systems. Most examinations of the evolution of virulence-transmission 16 relationships-theoretical or empirical in nature-tend to focus on the evolution of virulence, 17 with transmission a secondary consideration. In virus evolution, recent studies have examined 18 how the evolution of free-living survival can influence other traits. However, few studies have 19 examined the epidemic-scale consequences of evolution across the different virulence-survival 20 relationships, and specifically, of increased free-living survival. In this study, we utilize a 21 mathematical model motivated by aspects of SARS-CoV-2 natural history to investigate how 22