The Epidemiological Influence of Climatic Factors on Shigellosis Incidence Rates in Korea

Song, Young-Hwan; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Ki, Mi Ran; Shin, Ji Yeon; Hwang, Seung Sik; Park, Soo‐Jin; Ki, Moran; Lim, Joong Yeon

doi:10.3390/ijerph15102209

Cited by 18 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…[25] In Korea, the incidence of shigellosis increased by 13.6% with a temperature increase of 1°C. [37] Similar to previous studies, [25,29,37] the present study found that temperature was positively associated with the risk of shigellosis, with a rise of 1°C in air temperature corresponding to an 8% increase in the risk of disease.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

“…This finding is similar to the findings in the USA, Denmark, Australia, China, and Bangladesh, which all found that rainfall did not directly affect shigellosis. [8,37–39] However, some studies from the Pacific Islands reported a dose-response relationship between rainfall and the incidence of shigellosis, [16] suggesting that extremely high and low values of rainfall may lead to an increase in the number of cases.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…[2,40,41] In contrast, there was a higher incidence rate of shigellosis in elderly individuals than in young children in Korea. [37] The reason might be that the elderly population was not included as a priority target for the national sanitation control program. Consequently, the high incidence rate of shigellosis among elderly individuals in Korea has been reported.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Epidemiologic features of shigellosis and associated climatic factors in Taiwan

2019

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The consistent, sporadic transmission of shigellosis in Taiwan necessitates an exploration of risk factors for the occurrence of shigellosis. The purpose of this study was to study the epidemiologic characteristics and the relationship between climatic factors and the incidence of shigellosis in Taiwan. We collected data from cases of shigellosis reported to the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control (Taiwan CDC) from 2001 to 2016. Climatic data were obtained from the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau. The relationships between weather variability and the incidence of shigellosis in Taiwan were determined via Poisson regression analyses. During the 16-year study period, a total of 4171 clinical cases of shigellosis were reported to the Taiwan CDC. Among them, 1926 (46.2%) were classified as confirmed cases. The incidence of shigellosis showed significant seasonality, with the majority of cases occurring in summertime (for oscillation, P < .001). The number of shigellosis cases started to increase when temperatures reached 21°C (r 2 = 0.88, P < .001). Similarly, the number of shigellosis cases began to increase at a relative humidity of 70–74% (r 2 = 0.75, P < .005). The number of shigellosis cases was positively associated with the mean temperature and relative humidity in the period preceding the infection. In conclusion, the occurrence of shigellosis is significantly associated with increasing temperature and relative humidity in Taiwan. Therefore, these factors could be regarded as warning signals indicating the need to implement preventive measures.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Epidemiologic features of shigellosis and associated climatic factors in Taiwan

2019

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“…In recent years, although the incidence of shigellosis has a decreasing trend in China [16,21,22], it is still relatively high level in Hubei province from 2005 to 2017. The difference incidence of shigellosis cases in male and female is observed by the descriptive epidemiology [23,24]. However, all of them do not clarify the reasons for the difference.…”

Section: Epidemiological Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 98%

The relative transmissibility of shigellosis among male and female individuals in Hubei Province, China: a modelling study

Zhao

et al. 2019

Preprint

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AbstractObjectiveShigellosis has been a heavy burden in China. However, its relative transmissibility in male and female individuals remains unclear.MethodA sex-based Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious/Asymptomatic–Recovered (SEIAR) model was applied to explore the dataset of reported shigellosis cases built by Hubei Province from 2005 to 2017. Two indicators, secondary attack rate (SAR) and relative ratio of SAR between males and females, were developed to assess the relative transmissibility in males and females.ResultsThe number of cases and reported incidences in males and females demonstrated a significant decreasing trend (Male trend: χ2 = 11.268, P = 0.001, Female trend: χ2 = 11.144, P = 0.001). SEIAR model had a great fitting effect with the data of shigellosis (P < 0.001). Our simulation revealed that, when parameter βfm = 0, the greatest decrease in cases were obtained for different genders. The median value for SARmm was 2.3225 × 10−8 (Range: 1.7574 × 10−8 – 3.8565 × 10−8), SARmf was 2.5729 × 10−8 (Range: 1.3772 × 10−8 – 3.2773 × 10−8), SARfm was 2.7630 × 10−8 (Range: 1.8387 × 10−8 – 4.2638 × 10−8) and SARff was 2.1061 × 10−8 (Range: 1.0201 × 10−8 – 3.2140 × 10−8). The median value of relative ratio calculated by SAR in mm versus (vs) mf was 0.93 (Range: 0.75 – 1.47), mm vs fm was 0.90 (Range: 0.41 – 1.81), mm vs ff was 1.07 (Range: 0.55 – 2.93), mf vs fm was 0.99 (Range: 0.32 – 1.25), mf vs ff was 1.17 (Range: 0.43 – 3.21) and ff vs fm was 0.75 (Range: 0.35 – 1.06).ConclusionTransmissibility of shigellosis is different among male and female individuals. Shigellosis seems to be more transmissible in males than in females.Author summaryShigellosis, also known as bacillary dysentery, is an infectious disease caused by the genus Shigella spp. Developing countries have high disease burden of shigellosis. However, its relative transmissibility in male and female individuals remains unclear. In this study, we employed a mathematical model to explore the dataset of reported shigellosis cases built by Hubei Province, China from 2005 to 2017. Two indicators, secondary attack rate (SAR) and relative ratio of SAR between males and females, were developed to assess the relative transmissibility in males and females. We found that shigellosis has medium transmissibility among male and female individuals. The disease seems to be more transmissible in males than in females.

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“…In recent years, although the incidence of shigellosis exhibited a decreasing trend in China [6,26,36], relatively high levels still occurred in Hubei Province from 2005 to 2017. Different incidences of shigellosis cases in males and females were observed by the descriptive epidemiology [37,38]. However, few clarifications of the causes of this difference and the transmission features have been provided.…”

Section: Epidemiological Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relative transmissibility of shigellosis among male and female individuals: a modeling study in Hubei Province, China

et al. 2020

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Background: Developing countries exhibit a high disease burden from shigellosis. Owing to the different incidences in males and females, this study aims to analyze the features involved in the transmission of shigellosis among male (subscript m) and female (subscript f) individuals using a newly developed sex-based model. Methods:The data of reported shigellosis cases were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention in Hubei Province from 2005 to 2017. A sex-based Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious/ Asymptomatic-Recovered (SEIAR) model was applied to explore the dataset, and a sex-age-based SEIAR model was applied in 2010 to explore the sex-and age-specific transmissions.Results: From 2005 to 2017, 130 770 shigellosis cases (including 73 981 male and 56 789 female cases) were reported in Hubei Province. The SEIAR model exhibited a significant fitting effect with the shigellosis data (P < 0.001). The median values of the shigellosis transmission were 2.3225 × 10 8 for SAR mm (secondary attack rate from male to male), 2.5729 × 10 8 for SAR mf , 2.7630 × 10 -8 for SAR fm , and 2.1061 × 10 -8 for SAR ff . The top five mean values of the transmission relative rate in 2010 (where the subscript 1 was defined as male and age ≤ 5 years, 2 was male and age 6 to 59 years, 3 was male and age ≥ 60 years, 4 was female and age ≤ 5 years, 5 was female and age 6 to 59 years, and 6 was male and age ≥ 60 years) were 5.76 × 10 -8 for β 61 , 5.32 × 10 -8 for β 31 , 4.01 × 10 -8 for β 34 , 7.52 × 10 -9 for β 62 , and 6.04 × 10 -9 for β 64 .Conclusions: The transmissibility of shigellosis differed among male and female individuals. The transmissibility between the genders was higher than that within the genders, particularly female-to-male transmission. The most important route in children (age ≤ 5 years) was transmission from the elderly (age ≥ 60 years). Therefore, the greatest interventions should be applied in females and the elderly.

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The Epidemiological Influence of Climatic Factors on Shigellosis Incidence Rates in Korea

Cited by 18 publications

References 25 publications

Epidemiologic features of shigellosis and associated climatic factors in Taiwan

Epidemiologic features of shigellosis and associated climatic factors in Taiwan

The relative transmissibility of shigellosis among male and female individuals in Hubei Province, China: a modelling study

Relative transmissibility of shigellosis among male and female individuals: a modeling study in Hubei Province, China

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