The environmental and economic consequences of the developments of lead stocks in the Dutch economic system

Elshkaki, Ayman; Voet, Ester van der; Holderbeke, Mirja Van; Timmermans, Veerle

doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2004.02.008

Cited by 71 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Some have argued that declines in economic resources of metals are likely to be addressed by new deposits [5][6][7], and changes in technology that make existing uneconomic deposits viable [5] (e.g., development of new process technology for the McArthur River deposit, Australia [8]), or that make mining wastes of new process technology for the McArthur River deposit, Australia [8]), or that make mining wastes salvageable [5,[9][10][11][12][13][14]. A number have also pointed to the theoretical recyclability [5,10,15,16] and high quality of in-use materials [5,17,18]. Others have argued that such changes are more likely occur in a timely way when there is greater awareness of the potential for disruptions [5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Projection of Lead-Zinc Supply from Known Resources

et al. 2018

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Lead and zinc are used extensively in the construction and automotive industries, and require sustainable supply. In order to understand the future availability of lead and zinc, we have projected global supplies on a country-by-country basis from a detailed global assessment of mineral resources for 2013. The model GeRS-DeMo was used to create projections of lead and zinc production from ores, as well as recycling for lead. Our modelling suggests that lead and zinc production from known resources is set to peak within 15 years (lead 2025, zinc 2031). For lead, the total supply declines relatively slowly post peak due to recycling. If additional resources are found, these peaks would shift further into the future. These results suggest that lead and zinc consumers will need to plan for the future, potentially by: seeking alternative supplies (e.g., mine tailings, smelter/refinery slags); obtaining additional value from critical metals contained in lead-zinc ore deposits to counter lower grade ores; identifying potential substitutes; redesigning their products; or by contributing to the development of recycling industries.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Projection of Lead-Zinc Supply from Known Resources

et al. 2018

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“…As the four examples in this paper and the results of Elshkaki et al (2) demonstrate, the approximation of the magnitudes of various kinds of stocks is a tractable project. Stock estimation nonetheless demands considerable diligence in tracking down unpublished information or in determining values for which data have never been measured.…”

Section: North America Globalmentioning

confidence: 68%

Copper Mines Above and Below the Ground

Kapur¹,

Graedel²

2006

Environ. Sci. Technol.

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“…[3][4][5] However, the present study showed the difficulty of using regression analysis to forecast the future using past trends in countries such as China, South Korea and Taiwan, where steel input has increased rapidly only in recent years.…”

Section: Future Forecast Of Steel Inputmentioning

confidence: 72%

“…automobiles, buildings, home electric appliances). Although several studies have attempted to forecast future steel demand, 3,4) studies have not been completed that predict material flow, including scraps generation, with the exception of a study on lead by Elshkaki et al 5) The current study forecasts steel demand in Japan, China, Korea, and Taiwan and analyzes the future material flow of steel scraps using the demand forecast.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of Steel Consumption and Obsolete Scrap Generation in Japan and Asian Countries in the Future

Igarashi¹,

Kakiuchi²,

Daigo³

et al. 2008

ISIJ Int.

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The present flows of steel scraps in Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan are described, and a dynamic model that analyzes future scrap flows was developed. To estimate obsolete scrap recovery, a population balance model (PBM) was used for Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. The PBM dynamically estimated the amount of discarded steel by taking into account steel input into a society by end use and the lifetime distributions of each end use. For China, obsolete scrap recovery was estimated using a leaching model, which used the steel stock and the recovery ratio of obsolete scraps. Three different methods were applied to forecast future steel input for each country. The first method applied the assumption that steel demand in the future remains at the present level. The second method applied a logistic curve to estimate future steel stock. The third method applied regression equations to future steel input by end use. GDP and population were used as variables. Finally, the steel input forecasts produced by each method were substituted into the obsolete scrap recovery estimation model. The logistic curve method estimated that in 2030 obsolete scrap recovery would be 29 million tons in Japan, 83 million tons in China, 20 million tons in South Korea, and 3.7 million tons in Taiwan.KEY WORDS: China; Japan; South Korea; Steel scrap; Taiwan. Development of Material Flow Model Estimation of Steel InputThe residence time of steel in society and the recovery ratio of obsolete scraps differ among the end uses of steel. 2)Therefore, steel input in Japan before 2004 was estimated by each end use.Steel consumption was estimated by adding steel imports to and subtracting steel exports from steel production. Then, steel input into society was estimated by subtracting process yield scrap shipments and indirect exports from steel consumption and adding indirect imports. Indirect imports and exports are the steel imported and exported, respectively, by finished steel product industries.Steel input by end use in Japan from 1945 to 2004 was estimated in the following manner. Steel consumption by end use from 1971 to 2000 was obtained by conducting an interview survey.6) Process yield scrap shipments from 1980 to 2000 were obtained from literature. 7) Estimates of process yield scrap shipments from 1971 to 1979 assumed that the generation rates of process yield scraps for each end use were the same as those in 1980. Indirect imports and exports from 1971 to 2000 were also obtained from the interview survey. For China, the steel input by end use from 1949 to 2004 was estimated in the following manner. Steel production, imports and exports from 1949 to 2002 were based on a private communication.6) Steel consumption by end use from 1949 to 2002 was estimated by multiplying steel consumption by the rate of steel shipments according to end use, which was obtained from literature 10) for 1983 to 2000. The rates for the years that were not available in literature 10) were estimated using linear interpolation approximation. The rates for years pr...

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The environmental and economic consequences of the developments of lead stocks in the Dutch economic system

Cited by 71 publications

References 8 publications

Global Projection of Lead-Zinc Supply from Known Resources

Global Projection of Lead-Zinc Supply from Known Resources

Copper Mines Above and Below the Ground

Estimation of Steel Consumption and Obsolete Scrap Generation in Japan and Asian Countries in the Future

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