The end of world population growth

Lutz, Wolfgang; Sanderson, Warren C.; Scherbov, Sergei

doi:10.1038/35087589

Cited by 481 publications

(299 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Extensive aging occurs in all regions and global population peaks at 8.7 billion in 2050 and declines afterwards reaching 7 .1 billion by the end of the 21st century (5.6 billion in developing countries and 1.4 billion in industrialized ones). This scenario is consistent with recent analyses, which have found a significant probability that the world population will stop growing well before the end of the century [15].…”

Section: Demographic and Economic Assumptionssupporting

confidence: 81%

The hydrogen economy in the 21st century: a sustainable development scenario

Barreto

Makihira

Riahi

2003

International Journal of Hydrogen Energy

807

359

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A long-term hydrogen-based scenario of the global energy system is described in qualitative and quantitative terms here, illustrating the key role of hydrogen in a long-term transition toward a clean and sustainable energy future. In an affluent, low-population-growth, equity and sustainability-oriented B l-H2 world, hydrogen technologies experience substantial but plausible performance and costs improvements and are able to diffuse extensively. Corresponding production and distribution infrastructures emerge. The global hydrogen production system, initially fossil based, progressively shifts toward renewable sources. Fuel cells and other hydrogen-using technologies play a major role in a substantial transformation toward a more flexible, less vulnerable, distributed energy system which meets energy needs in a cleaner, more efficient and cost-effective way. This profound structural transformation of the global energy system brings substantial improvements in energy intensity and security of supply and results in an accelerated decarbonization of the energy mix, with subsequent relatively low climate impacts. Such energy-system path might still not be sufficient to protect against the risk of high climate sensitivities, but hydrogen-based technologies emerge as flexible options for the energy system and, thus, would be prime candidates for a risk management strategy against an uncertain climate future.

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Section: Demographic and Economic Assumptionssupporting

confidence: 81%

The hydrogen economy in the 21st century: a sustainable development scenario

Barreto

Makihira

Riahi

2003

International Journal of Hydrogen Energy

807

359

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Section 2 of this paper presents the results of a new set of probabilistic world and regional population forecasts . They confirm the finding that we presented earlier (Lutz et al 2001a) that it is highly likely that the world's population growth will come to the end during the 21st century.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 81%

“…The forecasts in this paper have resulted from updating forecasts that we previously published (Lutz et al 2001a). Those forecasts, like the present ones, used 2000 as a base year.…”

Section: Appendixmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The distributions of those figures come from information originally obtained from experts and updated according to the most recent observations (Lutz et al 2001a. They utilize time series statistical techniques and have been evaluated to ensure that they are consistent with magnitudes to be expected from the ex post analysis of errors in past United Nations (UN) forecasts.…”

Section: New Regional and Global Probabilistic Population Forecastsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They utilize time series statistical techniques and have been evaluated to ensure that they are consistent with magnitudes to be expected from the ex post analysis of errors in past United Nations (UN) forecasts. The assumptions underlying the forecasts were originally set out in Lutz et al (2001a) and justified in some detail in Lutz et al (2004). They have been updated in Lutz et al (2008).…”

Section: New Regional and Global Probabilistic Population Forecastsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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