The Empirical Study on Dynamic Relationship Between Domestic and Global Steel Price

Bin, Dou

doi:10.1109/wicom.2007.1072

Cited by 9 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…The general benefit of applying the VECM instead of some other models was also identified for several different agricultural price series [80]. Usefulness of models from econometrics mentioned above has also been witnessed in price forecasting and analysis research across a wide spectrum of commodities in different economic sectors, including steel price forecasts through the ARIMA [95, 98, 243–247], VAR [95, 96, 98, 99, 248–251], and VECM [95, 96, 99, 252–255].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scrap steel price forecasting with neural networks for east, north, south, central, northeast, and southwest China and at the national level

Zhang

2023

Ironmaking & Steelmaking

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There is little doubt about importance of forecasting commodity prices to policy makers and diverse varieties of market participants. In this present work, we analyse price forecasting problems for scrap steel for east, north, south, central, northeast, and southwest China and at the national level with daily data during 08/23/2013-04/15/2021. We focus on exploration of usefulness of non-linear autoregressive neural networks and examine forecasting performance based upon a variety of settings over algorithms for model estimations, numbers of hidden neurons and delays, and ratios for splitting the data into training, validation, and testing phases. We arrive at relatively simple models for the seven price series, which lead to forecasts of high accuracy and stabilities with relative root mean square errors below 0.85%. Our results could serve as standalone technical forecasts. They could be combined with other forecasts for forming perspectives of price trends and carrying out policy analysis.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scrap steel price forecasting with neural networks for east, north, south, central, northeast, and southwest China and at the national level

Zhang

2023

Ironmaking & Steelmaking

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“…This power changing with policy and volume of import and export has great control over the price on the international market, resulting in greater volatility in the price of steel. Its influence is not limited by region but also interactions with the entire Asiatic region [10].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This meant that the steel market had been driven to a new market level by the rise of the Chinese economy, and that the price of steel in China had increasingly important influence on the global steel prices. Bin [10] tried to analyze the influential relationship between the Chinese steel price and the global steel price objectively. For the two series, they would have different changes in the short term.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Analysis of the Relationship between Asian Steel Index and the Baltic Capsize Index

Chou¹,

Su²,

Chou³

et al. 2015

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The Asian Steel Index (ASI) and Baltic Capsize Index (BCI)are important indices of the tramp shipping industry, where the BCI index reveals both the current tramp maritime transport fare and market status, while the ASI index is a composite index determined by the trade prices of steel. This paper first reviewed the literature of ASI and BCI indices to illustrate the current composition of the ASI index, as well as the BCI index in the present tramp maritime industry. A time-series analysis was then followed to construct the optimum model of ASI and BCI indices, and the results could be used as references for the maritime industry. According to the formulation of the multivariate time series models, the optimal mode was found to be VARMA (2,4), which meant that both the ASI and BCI indices would be affected by previous two series of data and have the error correction effect of 4 series. The results of this study confirm that ASI and BCI indices have impacts on each other, especially for the maritime zones of the BCI index, which are consistent with the status of China, a big country with high demands for raw steel material. Furthermore, this model allows the user to discover the impact multiplier of both indices. The construction of the model is hoped to help provide a reference for academics and businesses in the shipping industry.

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“…In their working paper, Si and Wang (2006), via the Johansen co-integration method, found that a long-run cointegration relationship exists between main domestic sugar markets in China, and between the world sugar spot market and China's domestic sugar market in a sense that the world sugar market price is prone to lead price changes in China's domestic sugar market. Bin (2007) conducted a study on integration of domestic and global steel markets. The data demonstrated that China's steel price has one-way guidance role towards the global steel price, that is to say, ups and downs of China's steel price will portend the global steel price.…”

Section: Review Of Previous Empirical Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Phosphate fertilizers’ domestic price movement in Vietnam

Luu

2010

IJBM

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This research analyses long-run and short-run co-movements among the three variables "international prices," "domestic prices," and "import prices" of phosphate fertilizers using co-integration test, Granger causality test, and VEC model. The findings revealed that the domestic phosphate fertilizer market in Vietnam has well integrated into the international phosphate market since shifts in the domestic phosphate fertilizer price have been in long-run equilibrium with those in the international phosphate fertilizer price. Furthermore, changes in the domestic phosphate fertilizer price were brisker than those in the import price and were uncorrelated with the import prices.

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The Empirical Study on Dynamic Relationship Between Domestic and Global Steel Price

Cited by 9 publications

References 6 publications

Scrap steel price forecasting with neural networks for east, north, south, central, northeast, and southwest China and at the national level

Scrap steel price forecasting with neural networks for east, north, south, central, northeast, and southwest China and at the national level

An Analysis of the Relationship between Asian Steel Index and the Baltic Capsize Index

Phosphate fertilizers’ domestic price movement in Vietnam

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