The Empirical Analysis of Disease Burden and Wealth Creation in Nigeria

Abstract

The study investigates the impact of disease burden on wealth creation in Nigeria using annual time series data ranging from 2006-2018. A pre test was conducted to ascertain the stationarity of the data for it is a common knowledge that most time series data are not stationary. The case of this is not an exception to the assertion. Some of the variables were stationary at levels while others were stationary after first difference, that is I(0) and I(1) respectively. The different levels of integration of the data warrant the use of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model as a methodology for the analysis. The theoretical framework was based on the Disability Life Years (DALY) of Murray (1996) which says that the burden of disease is arrived at by the number of years a person loses as a result of dying early due to ailment and the number of years of life a person lives with disability caused by the disease. Diagnostic test was conducted using Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation Lagrange Multiplier Test to ascertain whether there is autocorrelation among the variables but the result shows that there is no trace of autocorrelation among variables. The long run empirical analysis revealed that wealth creation has impact on disease burden in Nigeria. This can conversely infer that as the source of livelihood increase, the disease burden on the population is reduced because people will have income to attract health consideration which invariably will reduce the chances of suffering from diseases. The life expectancy at birth has more and significant impact on disease burden than population and even wealth creation. It is therefore recommended among other recommendations that measures that will lead to wealth creation should be harnessed as this will greatly reduce the burden of diseases in Nigeria which will invariably increase life expectancy at birth.