The Empire of Chance

Martignon, Laura; Swijtink, Zeno G.; Porter, Theodore M.; Daston, Lorraine; Beatty, John; Krüger, Lorenz

doi:10.1017/cbo9780511720482

Cited by 761 publications

(209 citation statements)

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“…We cannot assume that without proper training biomedical and social science graduates would get miraculously enlightened about probability. Some of the best symbolic thinking minds of humanity devoted hundreds of years to the proper understanding of probability and statisticians still do not agree on how best to draw statistical inference (Stigler, 1986;Gigerenzer et al, 1989), e.g., the recent American Statistical Association statement on p-values (Wasserstein and Lazar, 2016) was accompanied by 21 editorials from the statisticians and methodologists who participated in crafting it and who disagreed in different aspects among themselves.…”

Section: Increase Statistical Power and Publish Pre-study Power Calcumentioning

confidence: 99%

When null hypothesis significance testing is unsuitable for research: a reassessment

Szűcs

Ioannidis

2016

Preprint

107

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Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) has several shortcomings that are likely contributing factors behind the widely debated replication crisis of (cognitive) neuroscience, psychology, and biomedical science in general. We review these shortcomings and suggest that, after sustained negative experience, NHST should no longer be the default, dominant statistical practice of all biomedical and psychological research. If theoretical predictions are weak we should not rely on all or nothing hypothesis tests. Different inferential methods may be most suitable for different types of research questions. Whenever researchers use NHST they should justify its use, and publish pre-study power calculations and effect sizes, including negative findings. Hypothesis-testing studies should be pre-registered and optimally raw data published. The current statistics lite educational approach for students that has sustained the widespread, spurious use of NHST should be phased out.

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Section: Increase Statistical Power and Publish Pre-study Power Calcumentioning

confidence: 99%

When null hypothesis significance testing is unsuitable for research: a reassessment

Szűcs

Ioannidis

2016

Preprint

107

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“…The modern human sciences developed two distinct forms of normalization. Historians of 19th century statistics (e.g., Gigerenzer, Swijtink, Porter, & Daston, 1989;Hacking, 1990) have distinguished Durkheim's socially conservative understanding of the average as the ideal -flanked by symmetrical pathological deviations -from Galton's socially progressive notion of people of unusual intelligence as cherished exceptions that might drag society forward from its currently mediocre state (e.g., Galton, 1869). Indeed, there is some evidence that Foucault understood this distinction.…”

Section: The Power Of the Normmentioning

confidence: 99%

From genius inverts to gendered intelligence: Lewis Terman and the power of the norm.

Hegarty¹

2007

History of Psychology

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The histories of "intelligence" and "sexuality" have largely been narrated separately. In Lewis Terman's work on individual differences, they intersect. Influenced by G. Stanley Hall, Terman initially described atypically accelerated development as problematic. Borrowing from Galton, Terman later positioned gifted children as nonaverage but ideal. Attention to the gifted effeminate subjects used to exemplify giftedness and gender nonconformity in Terman's work shows the selective instantiation of nonaverageness as pathological a propos of effeminacy, and as ideal a propos of high intelligence. Throughout, high intelligence is conflated with health, masculinity, and heterosexuality. Terman's research located marital sexual problems in women's bodies, further undoing possibilities for evaluating heterosexual men's practices as different from a normative position. Terman's research modernized Galton's imperialist vision of a society lead by a male cognitive elite. Psychologists continue to traffic in his logic that values and inculcates intelligence only in the service of sexual and gender conformity.

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“…It is delusional to think that a technique such as NPV can transcend such diversity and complexity. As Gigerenzer et al (1989) state: 'No amount of mathematical legerdemain can transform uncertainty into certainty'. However, management soothsayers -whether in airport departure lounge books, executive training courses or MBA classescontinue to misdirect managers, students and others with exaggerated claims about the calculability of the future.…”

Section: Misleading Conceptionsmentioning

confidence: 99%