The embodied carbon of mass timber and concrete buildings in Australia: An uncertainty analysis

Robati, Mehdi; Oldfield, Philip

doi:10.1016/j.buildenv.2022.108944

Cited by 35 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…By looking into the different approaches to include biogenic carbon, authors found that methodological uncertainties in dynamic LCAs affect the embodied emissions to a great degree [21]. Due to the higher contribution of materials production to GHG emissions over the life-cycle of buildings, many building LCAs focus on the uncertainties associated with embodied impacts [22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31]. These studies considered database choices, LCI, replacement scenarios, methodological choices such as system boundary definitions, and service life as major sources of building LCA uncertainties [24,25,31,32].…”

Section: Sources Of Uncertainties In Building Materials Lcasmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing uncertainty in building material emissions using scenario-aware Monte Carlo simulation

Bin Thaneya,

Gursel,

Kane

et al. 2024

Environ. Res.: Infrastruct. Sustain.

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Global greenhouse gas emissions from the built environment remain high, driving innovative approaches to develop and adopt building materials that can mitigate some of those emissions. However, life-cycle assessment (LCA) practices still lack standardized quantitative uncertainty assessment frameworks, which are urgently needed to robustly assess mitigation efforts. Previous works emphasize the importance of accounting for the three types of uncertainties that may exist within any quantitative assessment: parameter, scenario, and model uncertainty. Herein, we develop a quantitative uncertainty assessment framework that distinguishes between different types of uncertainties and suggest how these uncertainties could be handled systematically through a scenario-aware Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). We demonstrate the framework’s decision-informing power through a case study of two multilevel Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) manufacturing scenarios. The MCS utilizes a first-principles-based OPC life-cycle inventory, which mitigates some of the model uncertainty that may exist in other empirical-based cement models. Remaining uncertainties are handled by scenario specification or sampling from developed probability distribution functions. We also suggest a standardized method for fitting distributions to parameter data by enumerating through and implementing distributions based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The detailed parameter breakdown allows for developing emission distributions for each process of OPC manufacturing. This detailed approach highlights how individual parameters, along with scenario framing, impacts OPC emissions. Another key takeaway includes relating the uncertainty of each process to its contributions to total OPC emissions, which can guide LCA modelers in allocating data collection and refinement efforts on processes with the highest contribution to cumulative uncertainty. Ultimately, the aim of this work is to provide a standardized framework that can provide robust estimates of building material emissions and be readily integrated within any uncertainty assessment.

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Section: Sources Of Uncertainties In Building Materials Lcasmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing uncertainty in building material emissions using scenario-aware Monte Carlo simulation

Bin Thaneya,

Gursel,

Kane

et al. 2024

Environ. Res.: Infrastruct. Sustain.

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“…A more recent study presented a broader definition of embodied carbon. Citing a previous work, the report [54] identified embodied carbon as the GHG emissions that are produced during the extraction and transportation of raw materials, the manufacturing of building components and construction, renovation and maintenance for a building over its useful life span, demolition, disposal, or recycling of the materials for the building at the end of its life. Another work [55] noted that embodied energy and embodied carbon are the sum of the energy used and greenhouse gas emissions that are associated with material production, construction, and the end-of-life stages of a building.…”

Section: Calculating the Annual Embodied Energy And Embodied Carbon F...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Even though it is evidently possible, to date, the structural reuse of timber is not a widespread approach. A lack of demand for salvaged materials, lack of design standards, and prohibitive building regulations form the barriers to the use of reclaimed structural components [54]. The ease with which a building can be deconstructed for potential reuse depends on the method of construction.…”

Section: End-of-life Of Building Structurementioning

confidence: 99%

“…With this in mind, although the model given in this article may show the present factors that contribute to emissions from construction operations, it is important to ensure adequate update to the model when new factors are known to contribute to global GHG emissions. Some other scholars [54] used Monte-Carlo analysis to compare the embodied carbon of mass timber buildings and posttensioned concrete buildings. The result indicated that the embodied carbon of mid-rise mass timber buildings ranged from 196KgCO2-e/m2 to 590 KgCO2-e/m2 with an average of 417KgCO2-e/m2.…”

Section: Monte Carlo Simulation Approach For Allocating Targets Per S...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…𝐸 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑡 = 𝑇 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑡 (53) 𝐸 𝑢𝑠𝑒_𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 = 𝑇 𝑢𝑠𝑒_𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 (54) 𝐸 𝐸𝑂𝐿 = 𝑇 𝐸𝑂𝐿 (55) Note that some of the variables such as the impact during the use stage are often reported on a yearly basis. However, for consistency of units, this can also be evaluated based on the expected life span of the building.…”

Section: Monte Carlo Simulation Approach For Allocating Targets Per S...mentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Framework for the Application of Optimization Techniques in the Achievement of Global Emission Targets in the Housing Sector

Mofolasayo

2022

WJCEA

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The building construction industry holds a crucial role in the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions globally. The targets for greenhouse gas emissions may not be achieved without a defined strategic plan to meet up with the set targets from various sectors of the economy. Recognizing the enormous potential that the building industry holds in contributing to global greenhouse gas GHG emission reduction, this study describes a framework on how optimization techniques can be used as a guide for emission reduction targets for the housing sector using illustrations of the onsite and offsite building construction industry. Given that some of the GHG gases are also sources of air pollution, this study includes a discussion on how the effort to address air pollution can be used to find a consensus towards addressing the concern about GHG emissions. This study presents procedures for simplified methods of estimation of GHG emissions that various municipalities around the globe can use to estimate and report the emissions from the building construction industry. The study presents a unifying strategy for emission management. The study also demonstrates how programming methods can be applied to GHG emissions management. The approach used in this study is transferable to other industries. The study recommends a unifying strategy for the management and control of emissions in the building construction industry. The study also recommends a coordinated effort in sharing best practices for emission control and management from all jurisdictions globally. In the effort to reduce global emission targets, further studies like this and its expansion is recommended for all sectors of the global economy. It is recommended that these studies should be followed by a concrete effort to achieve good implementation of sustainable emission reduction targets globally.

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Embodied Carbon in the Built Environment: Measurements, Benchmarks and Pathways to Net Zero

Prasad

Kuru

Oldfield

et al. 2022

Delivering on the Climate Emergency

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The embodied carbon of mass timber and concrete buildings in Australia: An uncertainty analysis

Cited by 35 publications

References 59 publications

Assessing uncertainty in building material emissions using scenario-aware Monte Carlo simulation

Assessing uncertainty in building material emissions using scenario-aware Monte Carlo simulation

A Framework for the Application of Optimization Techniques in the Achievement of Global Emission Targets in the Housing Sector

Embodied Carbon in the Built Environment: Measurements, Benchmarks and Pathways to Net Zero

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