The Electorate in Poland's Large and Medium-Sized cities and Towns and its Influence on the Results of the 2007 Parliamentary Elections

Abstract

ABSTRACT. Urbanization is regarded among the most significant factors affecting election-related behaviour in Poland. In order to identify the importance of Poland's municipal electorate, a procedure of reverse elimination was applied to the electorates of successive largest cities in Poland, followed by a structure of supporting the strongest political parties at each stage of the cities' rank elimination. Whenever each successive elimination is followed by dwindling support for a given party, this party is referred to as pro-metropolitan.

Polish presidential election of 2010: a study of the power of voters in big and medium-sized towns

“…The elimination procedure and the analysis of the support structure were carried out along the following lines: (1) the election returns of successive biggest towns were eliminated and their level of support for each party or candidate determined at each stage of elimination, with the support expressed in terms of the proportion of valid votes; (2) the results of the successive biggest towns were eliminated again, but this time the support index was defined in terms of the number of eligible voters (thus reducing the effect of voter turnout on the structure of support and allowing a comparison of the results of various elections, often differing in the activity of the electorate); and (3) only those big cities were eliminated in which the advantage of the leading candidate or party over its competitor was greater than the national average. As has been established by Matykowski (2010), in the 2007 Sejm elections it was only after the elimination of 93 big and mediumsized towns (the last one excluded was Nysa) that the party Law and Justice (PiS) would have scored a success in the rest of Poland (34.9%), while at the scale of the country the victorious party was the Civic Platform (PO) with 41.4% of valid votes (in the towns eliminated from the settlement sub-system this party captured a much higher proportion of the vote, at 49.38%; cf. Table 1).…”

“…In analysing the effect of the electorate of the biggest towns in Poland on the election results, returns from abroad were ignored, as in Śleszyński (2007a) and Matykowski (2010). The procedure employed was that used in Matykowski (2010), involving the ordering of the 100 biggest towns by size in the 2010 presidential election and the preceding 2007 Sejm elections, the criterion being the number of eligible voters in the given town rather than its population.…”

“…The procedure employed was that used in Matykowski (2010), involving the ordering of the 100 biggest towns by size in the 2010 presidential election and the preceding 2007 Sejm elections, the criterion being the number of eligible voters in the given town rather than its population. It should be noted that the 2010 presidential election was an early one (owing to the tragic death of the previous President) and was held at the beginning of the summer holiday season.…”

Wybory Prezydenta RP w 2010 roku: studium znaczenia elektoratu dużych i średnich miast = Polish presidential election in 2010: A study of the power of voters in big and medium-sized towns

“…(1) the election returns of successive biggest towns were eliminated and their level of support for each party or candidate determined at each stage of elimination, with the support expressed in terms of the proportion of valid votes; (2) the results of the successive biggest towns were eliminated again, but this time the support index was defined in terms of the number of eligible voters (thus reducing the effect of voter turnout on the structure of support and allowing a comparison of the results of various elections, often differing in the activity of the electorate); and (3) only those big cities were eliminated in which the advantage of the leading can-didate or party over its competitor was greater than the national average. As has been established by Matykowski (2010), in the 2007 Sejm elections it was only after the elimination of 93 big and mediumsized towns (the last one excluded was Nysa) that the party Law and Justice (PiS) would have scored a success in the rest of Poland (34.9%), while at the scale of the country the victorious party was the Civic Platform (PO) with 41.4% of valid votes (in the towns eliminated from the settlement sub-system this party captured a much higher proportion of the vote, at 49.38%; cf. Table 1).…”

“…In analysing the effect of the electorate of the biggest towns in Poland on the election results, returns from abroad were ignored, as in Śleszyński (2007a) and Matykowski (2010). The procedure employed was that used in Matykowski (2010), involving the ordering of the 100 biggest towns by size in the 2010 presidential election and the preceding 2007 Sejm elections, the criterion being the number of eligible voters in the given town rather than its population. It should be noted that the 2010 presidential election was an early one (owing to the tragic death of the previous President) and was held at the beginning of the summer holiday season.…”