Changes in bird populations and their phenology (i.e. timing of nesting and migration) are increasingly linked to global climatic changes, particularly at temperate and Arctic latitudes. These patterns arise from local-and regional-scale effects of weather on demography but long-term time-series data necessary to explore these relationships are rarely available. Colonies of the common eider Somateria mollissima are often monitored annually for nest-down harvesting. We use long-term data from 2 nesting colonies in northwest Iceland (Bíldsey, Brei7afjör7ur: 29 yr and Laekur, Dýrafjör7ur: 55 yr) to examine the effects of weather conditions in each season on breeding numbers, arrival dates and clutch sizes. Numbers of nests in Bíldsey increased following warm, wet winters and first nests were produced later following windy and wet winters at Laekur. In spring, windy conditions tended to be followed by earlier female arrivals at Bíldsey. Warm, wet springs were positively correlated with larger clutch sizes at Laekur, and clutch sizes at Laekur decreased following especially wet and warm autumns. The overall population trends vary among sites and are likely to be influenced by both climatic and management conditions. These findings indicate that the effects of global climatic changes will depend on the details of changes in local weather conditions within each season. The strong effects on nesting dates and clutch sizes suggest that accumulation of body reserves, which sustain females during incubation and into brood rearing, is a key mechanism that could determine how altered distribution and frequencies of depressions within each season will affect future numbers of this species.KEY WORDS: Climate · Phenology · Temperature · Winter harshness · Breeding · Arctic · Waterfowl · Capital breeder
Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisherClim Res 38: [237][238][239][240][241][242][243][244][245][246][247][248] 2009 Arctic latitudes (66°N and higher), the short summer predisposes birds to complete breeding in a particularly short time (Poussart et al. 2000). A number of studies have shown how initiation of breeding is related to trends in climatic change, particularly through earlier spring migration and subsequent initiation of breeding (Durant et al. 2004, Frederiksen et al. 2004, Sparks et al. 2005, Jonzen et al. 2006, see also Robinson et al. 2007 and citations therein).Early nesters are generally individuals in relatively good body condition, which often consequently lay the largest clutches and attain the highest breeding success (Erikstad et al. 1993, Arnold et al. 2004, Bêty et al. 2004. Clutch size correlates with body condition in Arctic-breeding geese (genera Anser, Chen and Branta) and in ducks such as the common eider Somateria mollissima (Ankney & MacInnes 1978, Erikstad et al. 1993, Öst et al. 2008. Many birds exhibit a seasonal decline in clutch size (Arnold et al. 2004) and chick survival may decrease with advanced hatching date (Traylor & Alisauskas 2006)...