. Juvenile salmonid populations in a temperate river system track synoptic trends in climate. Global Change Biology, Wiley, 2010, 16 (12) Widespread decline among Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and brown trout (Salmo trutta) over recent decades have been linked to pollution, exploitation and catchment modification, but climate change is increasingly implicated. We used long-term, geographically extensive data from the Welsh River Wye, formerly a major salmon river, to examine whether climatically-mediated effects on juveniles (> 0+) might contribute to population change.Populations of Atlantic salmon and brown trout fell across the Wye catchment respectively by 50% and 67% between 1985 and 2004, but could not be explained by pollution because water quality improved during this time.Stream temperatures, estimated from calibrations against weekly air temperature at 8 sites, increased by 0.5-0.7 °C in summer and 0.7-1.0 °C in winter, with larger tributaries warming more than shaded headwaters. Rates of winter warming were slightly greater after accounting for the effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation (1.1-1.4 °C). However, warming through time was smaller than measured variations among tributaries, and alone was insufficient to explain variations in salmonid density. Instead, population variations were best explained in multi-level mixed models by a synoptic variate representing a trend towards hotter, drier summers, implying interactions between climate warming, varying discharge and fluctuatations in both brown trout and salmon. geographically extensive data from the Welsh River Wye, formerly a major salmon river, 17 to examine whether climatically-mediated effects on juveniles (> 0+) might contribute to 18 population change. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 for the UK suggest that altered summer flow and increasing summer temperatures could 36 exacerbate losses further in these species, and we advocate management actions that 37 combine reduced abstraction with enhanced riparian shading. 38 39