The Effects of Volatility, Fiscal Policy Cyclicality and Financial Development on Growth: Evidence for the Eastern Caribbean

Abstract

The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

Taming Volatility

“…We were able to arrive at this conclusion by using complementary empirical modeling strategies. First, in section 2, we follow Brueckner and Carneiro (2015) and estimate an econometric model using panel data on GDP per capita, financial development, and government spending for a sample of 175 countries over the period 1980-2010. These data are available from the Penn World Tables and the World Development Indicators. With this modeling strategy, we were able to benchmark the behavior of OECS economies against other countries in the world.…”

Fuel Price Networks in the EU

“…One immensely studied topic involves analyzing the relation between crude oil prices and fuel prices, with a primary focus on how the fuel market responds to fluctuations in crude oil prices (Bennett et al 2021;Owyang and Vermann 2014;Bettendorf et al 2009; Chesnes 2016; Asane-Otoo and Dannemann 2022; Kristoufek and Lunackova 2015;Bergantino et al 2020;Bakhat et al 2022;Apergis and Vouzavalis 2018;Ederington et al 2021;Bragoudakis et al 2020;Karagiannis et al 2015). Several other fields have been explored regarding the interrelation between fuel prices and the economy (Kpodar and Liu 2022;Kilian and Zhou 2022;Brueckner et al 2023), tax regulations (Dovern et al 2023;Drolsbach et al 2023;Tiezzi and Verde 2016), food prices (Zingbagba et al 2020;Diab and Karaki 2023), and supply chains (Fisher Ke et al 2014;Milewska and Milewski 2022), among others. The primary objective of this study, as previously stated, is to analyze the fuel market (each of the two main fuels is examined separately) and its evolution over time, seeking potential price movement synchronization within EU distinct national markets.…”