The effects of the EU’s forest-related policies on harvesting costs in Finland

Abstract

The EU’s influence on national forest policies is growing, and the implementation of forest-related policies proposed by the Commission will affect the practice of forestry in Europe. For instance, the Nature Restoration Law sets concrete areal goals for restoring forest ecosystems and for conservation, the Deforestation Regulation requires meticulous tracking of wood’s origin, and the renewed Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) sets new criteria to sustainable forest biomass procurement. So far there have been no studies that have looked into the impacts from the economic and operational point of view. In this study, structural systems analysis was first performed to discover the relevant variables (and their functioning) associated with the roundwood harvesting operations and the operating environment. A scenario approach was then applied to capture the potential levels of implementation of the EU’s forest-related policies. Finally, using different scenarios (low-, moderate- and high-impact) and a systems analysis framework, the impact of alternative levels of implementation was quantified in terms of harvesting costs, measured in € m–3. The results indicate that with the low- and moderate-impact scenarios the harvesting costs would increase by less than 10% from the current levels in three different regions in Finland. Such an increase (less than 10%) could be tolerated over a period of a few years, but a sudden increase is likely to lead to challenges to the running of businesses. With the high-impact scenario the harvesting costs would increase by between 15% and 18%, depending on the region. This magnitude of increase (of approximately a sixth) corresponds to a severe change in the roundwood harvesting operations and operating environment.