The Effects of Outcome Uncertainty, Scoring, and Pregame Expectations on Nielsen Ratings for Bowl Championship Series Games

Abstract

This study utilizes Nielsen ratings to estimate the factors that influence viewership for Bowl Championship Series telecasts. Our modeling demonstrates increased start-of-game ratings for contests of higher absolute quality, but not of anticipated higher relative quality. Little support is generated for the notion of consumer preference for scoring. However, the relationship between outcome uncertainty and television ratings is dynamic as consumers initially prefer more certain games, but ratings increase systematically throughout a contest when the outcome of that contest becomes more uncertain. Preferences also exist for games in which actual outcomes match pregame expectations.

The Determinants of the TV Demand for Soccer: Empirical Evidence on Italian Serie A for the Period 2008-2015

“…The first is distance, used previously by Simmons (2006) andTainsky andMcEvoy (2012). It is an integer variable measuring the distance, in km, between the town centres of the two cities of teams involved in the match and is intended to act as a proxy for the travel cost for the supporters.…”

The Effects of the Clock and Kickoff Rule Changes on Actual and Market-Based Expected Scoring in NCAA Football

“…Table 1 The margin of victory was relatively stable for non-conference games over the period while the margin decreased in conference games. [42] in their work on Neilson ratings for BCS games; their results indicate that increases in the margin at a given quarter decrease ratings. The previously mentioned study investigates the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis while Grimshaw et al [43] examines TV audiences for the NCAA men's basketball Final Four games based on a consumer theory model.…”

“…The previously mentioned study investigates the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis while Grimshaw et al [43] examines TV audiences for the NCAA men's basketball Final Four games based on a consumer theory model. Future research into the factors affecting TV audiences for these games is warranted due to the financial stakes; the 2011-2014 television deal generates $155 million per season for the BCS while the upcoming contract is estimated at $470 million per year [42]. Given six BCS games in the upcoming season then the per-game figure is approximately $78.3 million.…”

Competitive balance and the participation–spectatorship gap in Chinese table tennis

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