The effects of oil price uncertainty on economic activities in South Africa

Chiweza, Junior T.; Aye, Goodness C.

doi:10.1080/23322039.2018.1518117

Cited by 19 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…Although the Granger causality test can examine the existence of causal relationships between variables in a specific direction from a statistical perspective, a critical analysis of the significant relationships and exactly how long the effect of an EPU shock on macroeconomic variables remains active through the system was warranted. Variance decomposition and impulse response functions are suitable methods to use to observe these relationships (Chiweza and Aye, 2018).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring the influence of economic policy uncertainty on the relationship between tourism and economic growth with an MF-VAR model

Liu

Yong-lian

2020

Tourism Economics

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Using a mixed-frequency vector autoregressive (MF-VAR) model, this article attempts to determine whether or not the relationship between tourism and economic growth changes in the presence or absence of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) shock. Moreover, we further our analysis by focusing on whether or not there is a significant difference in the distinct impact intensity of Hong Kong, Chinese, and global EPU. The study period spans April 1998 to March 2018. The results indicate the following. First, the existence of Hong Kong, Chinese, and global EPU does not affect the direction of the impulse response; rather, its primary influence is on the size of the impact. Second, the different ranges of EPU have different impact intensities. Third, compared to the MF-VAR model, the quarterly frequency vector autoregressive model does not fully capture the impact of EPU, especially the negative impact of global EPU on tourism. Therefore, policymakers and tourism stakeholders should develop targeted marketing plans to maintain expected tourism demand if economic uncertainty increases.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring the influence of economic policy uncertainty on the relationship between tourism and economic growth with an MF-VAR model

Liu

Yong-lian

2020

Tourism Economics

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“…The researchers found that the leading cause of the high crude oil price volatility was the increase in oil demand (Kilian, 2009) and speculative demand activity in the derivatives market (Beidas-Strom and Pescatori, 2014). Such high volatility of oil prices can cause uncertainty in the economy, which leads to investment delays and economic growth reduction (Elder and Serletis, 2010;Chiweza and Aye, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Crude Oil Prices Volatility, the Internet and Inflation on Economic Growth in Asean-5 Countries: A Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

Rosnawintang

Tajuddin

Adam

et al. 2020

IJEEP

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This paper aims to examine the effect of crude oil price volatility, the internet, and inflation on economic growth in ASEAN-5 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand). To test this effect, we use the panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag model and panel data with annual time series for the period from 1995 to 2018. The test results show that only the internet affects economic growth in the long run, and this effect is positive. Meanwhile, in the short run, there is an impact of crude oil price volatility, the internet, and inflation on economic growth in all ASEAN-5 countries. However, the effect of inflation on economic growth only exists in Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand.

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“…They conclude that the magnitude of the percentage impact is minimal in this study, but it does not suggest that the consequences of the oil shock on the Ghanaian economy are insignificant. In South Africa, the results of the S-VAR by Chiweza and Aye (2018) and Ilyas et al, (2021) revealed a tendency of negative consequences from changes in oil prices on the country's economic activities. Commodity price fluctuations pose a significant threat to African countries' macroeconomic stability (including East Africa), although the impact is highly dependent on each country's structural characteristics and policy implementation response.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

West African Monetary Policy, External Shocks and Economic Growth Dynamics: An S-Var Model

Muhammed

Tela²,

Wahab³

2022

LBIBF

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As a result of the West African region's continuous political and economic instability, various economies have used monetary policy changes to respond to shocks from macroeconomic causes. Scholars disagree on the mechanisms of monetary policy, external shocks, and macroeconomic activity links in an economy, according to the available literature in both inter-regional and intra-regional evaluations. This article promotes understanding and management of external shocks in monetary policy by focusing on two key goals. (1) To investigate external shocks, macroeconomic performance, and the dynamics of monetary policy in Western African countries. (2) Use the S-VAR method of estimate to investigate the impact of these economic indices on monetary policy dynamics in Nigeria, Ghana, Cameroon, and Niger. The S-VAR method was chosen because it is useful for analysing macroeconomic shocks and monetary policy transmission. The findings reveal that the West African countries are so interconnected, any change in the price of non-oil commodities would have a significant impact on the exchange rate, which will be channelled through policy rates to GDP. We recommend and emphasise the need of diversifying member countries' productive and export bases rather than continuing to rely on one or a few items as the primary source of income.

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The effects of oil price uncertainty on economic activities in South Africa

Cited by 19 publications

References 52 publications

Exploring the influence of economic policy uncertainty on the relationship between tourism and economic growth with an MF-VAR model

Exploring the influence of economic policy uncertainty on the relationship between tourism and economic growth with an MF-VAR model

Effects of Crude Oil Prices Volatility, the Internet and Inflation on Economic Growth in Asean-5 Countries: A Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

West African Monetary Policy, External Shocks and Economic Growth Dynamics: An S-Var Model

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