The Effects of Macroeconomic Factors on Credit to Deposits-Ratio (Cdr): Evidencing Turkey

Abstract

The relationship between developments in the banking sector and macroeconomic factors in country's economy has been the focus of both the economy and the banking literature. As a result of this; various research and sturies that investigate the effects on the banking sector have been done on economic performances of countries and financial developments. Because these reearch and studies are very important not only for the development of banking sector but also determining the principles of the strategies that will be developed the banking sector towards the future together with doing accurate prediction.By way of this thought, in this paper, the relationship between the periodic changes in the "credit/deposit ratio" (shortly CDR) of the banking sector and the periodic changes in macroeconomic parameters has been investigated in Turkey for the period 2002-2016. Deposits, Credits and CDR were mentioned in part II as a fact of Turkey's Banking Sector View. GDP, CPI, IPI, Export and Import were mentioned in part III as an elements of Turkey's Macroeconomic View. Data set and methodology were mentioned in part IV. According to the results obtained; we claim that in Turkey Banking Sector, the percentage change of credit to deposits ratio is affected by both the percentage change of import and the percentage change of CPI strongly, that is as imports increase in Turkey, the credit to deposit rate increases and similarly as CPI increase, the credit to deposit rate increases too. Moreover; we claim that Imports in Turkey are financed by bank credits. As imports increase, the need for bank credits are also increasing. We claim also that imports are not an increasing effects on savings in Turkey. Similarly; we claim that CPI must be reduced to increase savings. Otherwise; as inflation increases, the demand for credit will increase because there is a need for additional resources due to decrease of the purchasing ability of the existing assets.

Internal Factors Affecting Commercial Bank Lending: Symmetric and Asymmetric Effects of Macro-Level Data Evidence

“…So far, many studies related to bank loans have analyzed determinants from external factors, including research conducted by Duran and Duran (2017) and Oyebowale (2020). However, external factors are factors that the bank cannot control.…”