The Effects of Forecasting on Creative Problem-Solving: An Experimental Study

Leader Ethical Decision-Making in Organizations: Strategies for Sensemaking

“…Forecasting is intertwined with previous sensemaking strategies, as regulation of incidental negative emotions has been linked to accurate forecasting (Lerner and Gonzalez 2005) and self-reflection is often a necessary process in forming future predictions (Dörner and Schaub 1994). Forecasting improves performance for many complex tasks, including creative problem-solving (Byrne et al 2010), planning (Marta et al 2005), and leader cognition (Vincent et al 2002). One benefit of forecasting is that it helps leaders understand complex, ill-defined situations, like ethical dilemmas, by identifying sources of uncertainty in the environment (Hogarth and Makridakis 1981).…”

Forecasting and Ethical Decision Making: What Matters?

“…On the other hand, mounting evidence seems to suggest that performance pressure may not impact forecasting and EDM (Byrne et al, 2010;Stenmark et al, 2010;Stenmark et al, 2011). These studies seem to suggest that these processes are not impacted by this situational variable, despite the fact that many other, similarly complex processes are, in fact, negatively impacted by pressure.…”

“…Empirical research has demonstrated that forecasting is, indeed, important for complex cognitive processes, such as planning (Marta, Leritz, & Mumford, 2005) and creative problem solving (Byrne et al, 2010;Osburn & Mumford, 2006). Because of their complex and ill-defined nature, solving ethical problems is likely to require some of the same cognitive strategies as those involved in planning and creative problem solving (Mumford et al, 2008).…”

Forecasting and leader performance: Objective cognition in a socio-organizational context

“…The results obtained in the studies examined in the present effort provide some compelling support for this proposition. Multiple studies, studies by Byrne et al (2010), Shipman et al (2010), and Stenmark et al (2010), all indicate that the skill in forecasting is very strongly related to performance differences observed on leadership tasks. Not only is forecasting strongly related to leader performance, measures of forecasting skill add to the prediction obtained from more traditional measures of individual differences-intelligence, divergent thinking, planning, and need for cognition.…”

“…In one study along these lines, Byrne, Shipman, and Mumford (2010) asked undergraduates to develop marketing plans for a new high-energy root beer with the resulting marketing plans being evaluated for quality, originality, and elegance. As they formulated these plans, participants were presented with emails where they were asked to forecast the implications of their ideas, and, after selecting their best idea, to forecast the implications of plans for executing this idea.…”