The effects of electability on US primary voters

Simas, Elizabeth N.

doi:10.1080/17457289.2016.1270287

Cited by 22 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…Regarding the first proposition, recent studies suggest that voters perceive women candidates to be less electable than men candidates ( 32 , 39 – 41 ). Regarding the second proposition, studies featuring a diversity of methods—including preelection polling ( 42 ), postelection exit polling ( 43 ), and an experimental study of a hypothetical US primary ( 44 )—show that a candidate’s perceived electability influences voters in primary elections. In addition, research has demonstrated that “third-order beliefs”—perceptions of what “most people” think—can override individuals’ own first-order beliefs when first- and third-order beliefs conflict ( 30 , 45 ).…”

Section: Gender and Electability Beliefsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pragmatic bias impedes women’s access to political leadership

Corbett

Voelkel

Cooper

et al. 2022

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Progress toward gender equality is thwarted by the underrepresentation of women in political leadership, even as most Americans report they would vote for women candidates. Here, we hypothesize that women candidates are often disadvantaged by pragmatic bias, a tendency to withhold support for members of groups for whom success is perceived to be difficult or impossible to achieve. Across six studies (N = 7,895), we test whether pragmatic bias impedes women’s access to a highly significant political leadership position—the US presidency. In two surveys, 2020 Democratic primary voters perceived women candidates to be less electable, and these beliefs were correlated with lower intentions to vote for women candidates (Studies 1 and 2). Voters identified many reasons women would be less electable than men, including others’ unwillingness to vote for women, biased media coverage, and higher requirements to prove themselves. We next tested interventions to reduce pragmatic bias. Merely correcting misperceptions of Americans’ reported readiness for a woman president did not increase intentions to vote for a woman (Study 3). However, across three experiments (including one preregistered on a nationally representative sample), presenting evidence that women earn as much support as men in US general elections increased Democratic primary voters’ intentions to vote for women presidential candidates, an effect driven by heightened perceptions of these candidates’ electability (Studies 4 to 6). These findings highlight that social change efforts can be thwarted by people’s sense of what is possible, but this may be overcome by credibly signaling others’ willingness to act collectively.

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Section: Gender and Electability Beliefsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pragmatic bias impedes women’s access to political leadership

Corbett

Voelkel

Cooper

et al. 2022

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…Extant research concludes that strategic primary voting is guided by electoral projections. Simply enough, the greater a candidate's perceived chances for general election success, the more willing primary voters are to support them (Abramowitz 1989;Abramson et al 1992;Rickerhauser and Aldrich 2007;Sides and Lundry 2011;Simas 2017). The tendency to view strategic voting purely in electability terms is understandable.…”

Section: Strategic Voting: Beyond Electabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Party over preference? Strategic primary voting in the age of outsiders^*

Kelly

Loepp

2022

Social Science Quarterly

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Objective Some primary voters cast their ballot for a candidate they do not most prefer in hopes that doing so will increase their party's chances of winning the general election. However, the emergence of party “outsider” candidates challenges prevailing assumptions about the persuasive pull of electability arguments on voter decision making. In this project, we analyze whether and when supporters of “outsider” candidates resolve strategic dilemmas relative to supporters of “insider” candidates. Methods We administer survey experiments to Republicans and Democrats immediately before the 2016 and 2020 primaries, respectively. Results Although voters in both parties are willing to vote strategically, there are critical differences when it comes to the loyalty primary voters feel to outsider primary candidates like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. Conclusion Strategic voting decisions are not based merely on electability, particularly in the case of “outsider” candidates. Scholars should integrate additional factors into future work on voter behavior in primaries.

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“…Third, inasmuch as Biden and Sanders were contesting a primary election, it is possible that some segment of the primary electorate voted strategically, choosing not their preferred candidate but the most "electable" candidate in the general election (Abramson et al 1992;Rickershauser and Aldrich 2007;Simas 2017). In this setting, an anxiety-inducing crisis raises the stakes of the general election and pushes more primary voters to behave strategically.…”

Section: Empirical Contextsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flight to Safety: COVID-Induced Changes in the Intensity of Status Quo Preference and Voting Behavior

Bisbee¹,

Honig

2021

Am Polit Sci Rev

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The relationship between anxiety and investor behavior is well known enough to warrant its own aphorism: a “flight to safety.” We posit that anxiety alters the intensity of voters’ preference for the status quo, inducing a political flight to safety toward establishment candidates. Leveraging the outbreak of the novel coronavirus during the Democratic primary election of 2020, we identify a causal effect of the outbreak on voting, with Biden benefiting between 7 and 15 percentage points at Sanders’s expense. A survey experiment in which participants exposed to an anxiety-inducing prompt choose the less disruptive hypothetical candidate provides further evidence of our theorized flight to safety among US-based respondents. Evidence from 2020 French municipal and US House primary elections suggests a COVID-induced flight to safety generalizes to benefit mainstream candidates across a variety of settings. Our findings suggest an as-yet underappreciated preference for “safe” candidates in times of anxiety.

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The effects of electability on US primary voters

Cited by 22 publications

References 61 publications

Pragmatic bias impedes women’s access to political leadership

Pragmatic bias impedes women’s access to political leadership

Party over preference? Strategic primary voting in the age of outsiders^*

Flight to Safety: COVID-Induced Changes in the Intensity of Status Quo Preference and Voting Behavior

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The effects of electability on US primary voters

Cited by 22 publications

References 61 publications

Pragmatic bias impedes women’s access to political leadership

Pragmatic bias impedes women’s access to political leadership

Party over preference? Strategic primary voting in the age of outsiders*

Flight to Safety: COVID-Induced Changes in the Intensity of Status Quo Preference and Voting Behavior

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Product

Resources

About

Party over preference? Strategic primary voting in the age of outsiders^*