The effects of COVID-19 vaccines on economic activity

Deb, Pragyan; Furceri, Davide; Jiménez, Daniel; Kothari, Siddharth; Ostry, Jonathan D.; Tawk, Nour

doi:10.1186/s41937-021-00082-0

Cited by 39 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 19 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…As a series of publications shows, while government containment measures have been quite effective in flattening the “pandemic curve,” their side effect has been to severely depress economic performance and employment [ 17 , 18 ]. A recent study, using a sample of 46 countries for the first half of 2021, finds that an increase in vaccination per capita is associated with a significant increase in economic activity [ 19 ]. They also find economic benefits being larger when vaccination rates are higher.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vaccination Is Reasonably Effective in Limiting the Spread of COVID-19 Infections, Hospitalizations and Deaths with COVID-19

Damijan

Kostevc

2022

Vaccines

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper uses large cross-country data for 110 countries to examine the effectiveness of COVID vaccination coverage during the delta variant outbreak. Our results confirm that vaccines are reasonably effective in both limiting the spread of infections and containing more severe disease progression in symptomatic patients. First, the results show that full vaccination rate is consistently negatively correlated with the number of new COVID cases, whereby a 10 percent increase in vaccination rate is associated with a 1.3 to 1.7 percent decrease in new COVID cases. Second, the magnitude of vaccination is shown to contribute significantly to moderating severe disease progression. On average, a 10 percent increase in the rate of vaccination leads to a reduction of about 5 percent in the number of new hospitalizations, 12 percent decrease in the number of new intensive care patients and 2 percent reduction in the number of new deaths. Finally, by comparing the data for the same period between 2020 and 2021, we also check how well vaccination performs as a substitute for lockdowns or other stringent government protection measures. Results suggest that vaccination appears to be an effective substitute for more stringent government safety measures to contain the spread of COVID infections only at a sufficiently high vaccination coverage threshold (more than 70 percent). On the other hand, vaccination is shown to be quite effective in limiting the more severe course of the disease in symptomatic patients already at moderate vaccination coverage (between 40 and 70 percent). This suggests that vaccination can also help to reduce pressure on the health system and thus benefit the overall public health of society. On the other hand, the efficient rollout of vaccines could explain the favourable economic performance in the second half of 2021 despite the severe outbreak of the delta variant.

show abstract

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vaccination Is Reasonably Effective in Limiting the Spread of COVID-19 Infections, Hospitalizations and Deaths with COVID-19

Damijan

Kostevc

2022

Vaccines

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…However, even when most countries have begun distributing vaccines and treatments, the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 is still not decreasing. This is because vaccinations lead to unexpected increase in human mobility so that the rate of COVID-19 transmission is still sustained or even increased ( Deb et al, 2022 ; Guo et al, 2021 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Non-pharmaceutical interventions and urban vehicle mobility in Seoul during the COVID-19 pandemic

Sung

2022

Cities

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…However, the authors found no evidence of the effects of the vaccine rollout on healthcare and employment. In addition, Deb et al ( 2022 ), using cross-country data covering 46 countries over the period December 2020–June 2021, found evidence that an increase in vaccination per capita is associated with a significant increase in economic activities, such as nitrogen dioxide and carbon monoxide emissions and recreation mobility. In a related development, Deb et al ( 2022 ), using cross-country data covering 17 countries, showed that vaccine deployment has persistent positive effects on the level of economic activity.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition, Deb et al ( 2022 ), using cross-country data covering 46 countries over the period December 2020–June 2021, found evidence that an increase in vaccination per capita is associated with a significant increase in economic activities, such as nitrogen dioxide and carbon monoxide emissions and recreation mobility. In a related development, Deb et al ( 2022 ), using cross-country data covering 17 countries, showed that vaccine deployment has persistent positive effects on the level of economic activity. Finally, Agarwal and Gopinath using a cost–benefit analysis, found that vaccinating 40 percent of the world's population by 2021 could cost around $50 billion, while benefits could reach about $9 trillion in economic gains.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The COVID-19 vaccine rollout and labor market recovery in the U.S: a note

Ogundari

2022

SN Bus Econ

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The study examines the relationship between COVID-19 vaccine rollout and labor market recovery in the United States. We employed the U.S. Current Population Survey (CPS), covering February 2020–October 2021. With December 2020–October 2021 taken as the vaccine rollout period and February–November 2020 as the pre-vaccine period, we regress this on the number of working hours per week while controlling for other potential confounding factors using the ordinary least square (OLS) regression model. The empirical results show that working hours are significantly higher, since vaccines rolled out than in the pre-vaccine period, which probably reflects increased confidence in immunized individuals and vaccination optimism in the U.S. At the same time, we find that working hours are significantly higher, since vaccines rollout than in the pre-vaccine period among white respondents, while it decreases among black respondents. The regional insights also show that working hours increase during vaccine rollout in the Midwest and South, while we find no evidence in the Northeast and West. From the overall economic standpoint, this finding indicates an accelerating pace of labor market recovery in the United States.

show abstract

The effects of COVID-19 vaccines on economic activity

Cited by 39 publications

References 19 publications

Vaccination Is Reasonably Effective in Limiting the Spread of COVID-19 Infections, Hospitalizations and Deaths with COVID-19

Vaccination Is Reasonably Effective in Limiting the Spread of COVID-19 Infections, Hospitalizations and Deaths with COVID-19

Non-pharmaceutical interventions and urban vehicle mobility in Seoul during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 vaccine rollout and labor market recovery in the U.S: a note

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About