The Effects of Changing Land Cover on Streamflow Simulation in Puerto Rico

Abstract

This study quantitatively explores whether land cover changes have a substantive impact on simulated streamflow within the tropical island setting of Puerto Rico. The Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was used to compare streamflow simulations based on five static parameterizations of land cover with those based on dynamically varying parameters derived from four land cover scenes for the period 1953-2012. The PRMS simulations based on static land cover illustrated consistent differences in simulated streamflow across the island. It was determined that the scale of the analysis makes a difference: large regions with localized areas that have undergone dramatic land cover change may show negligible difference in total streamflow, but streamflow simulations using dynamic land cover parameters for a highly altered subwatershed clearly demonstrate the effects of changing land cover on simulated streamflow. Incorporating dynamic parameterization in these highly altered watersheds can reduce the predictive uncertainty in simulations of streamflow using PRMS. Hydrologic models that do not consider the projected changes in land cover may be inadequate for water resource management planning for future conditions.(KEY TERMS: land use/land cover change; urbanization; surface water hydrology; Precipitation Runoff Modeling System; geospatial analysis; Caribbean.)

Characterizing Predictability of Fire Occurrence in Tropical Forests and Grasslands: The Case of Puerto Rico

“…The municipalities that registered more fire episodes between 2003 and 2011 were located mainly south of the island while municipalities with less number of fires reported were located north. The number of fires per 1000 persons was higher (40)(41)(42)(43)(44)(45)(46)(47)(48)(49)(50)(51)(52)(53)(54)(55)(56) in seven municipalities located south and west of the island (Figure 1a). The same spatial pattern was found in relation to municipality area, the highest numbers of fires per km 2 (10-17) were found in six municipalities located mainly in the south and located in the north west area of the island (Figure 1b).…”

“…Dry, open forests are located in the south, and wetter, more closed forest are located in the north, east, and in the central mountains. The landscape is a complex matrix of wildlands, developed areas, and agricultural lands [42,43].…”

Climate change and water resources in a tropical island system: propagation of uncertainty from statistically downscaled climate models to hydrologic models

“…A multiple linear regression method was used by Van Beusekom et al (2014) to spatially distribute the daily climate data (measured or projected) from the observing network locations to each hydrologic response unit (HRU) in Puerto Rico based on the longitude, latitude, and elevation of the HRU, with different coefficients for each month.…”

“…The use of dynamic land cover parameters over static ones was shown to improve the model performance. For more details, see Van Beusekom et al (2014). The spatially distributed parameter capabilities of PRMS are provided by partitioning the watershed into HRUs (Figure 1).…”

Forestation in Puerto Rico, 1970s to Present

“…The average temperature is 28 °C throughout the year. According to Van Beusekom (2014), the rainy season is bimodal, with an earlier period of precipitations from May through June and a later period from August to November. Puerto Rico has a total population of about 3.5 million and is among the most densely populated U.S. jurisdictions in the tropics.…”